NFL
What The Game Of Risk Has Taught Me About First-Round Running Backs
Can Kamchatka really give us fantasy football insight?

You don’t go for Asia at the beginning of the game, man.

Personally, I like Africa. It’s not difficult to defend at all, and the benefit in getting three-army builds per turn makes it more advantageous - in my eyes - than trying to snag South America. I can understand the Australia appeal, though: it’s safe and dependable. Whoever gets Australia is going to compete. Bet on it.

But you don’t enter a game of Risk thinking, “Awesome, I drew Irkutsk and Kamchatka!” The only time you’d feel good about that is if you’re playing with a bunch of beginners.

Risk – a strategy game I’ve been playing since NHL ’94 was a thing - has taught me a lot about “go big or go home” strategies, something important to understand in fantasy football. No, I’m not thinking about a potential Brazil attack (remember, I like Africa) when I draft Trent Richardson makes sense here as opposed to Arian Foster.

Richardson isn’t flashy; his 3.6 yards per carry average wasn’t anything to cheer about during his rookie year. But he got the job done, and that’s what we should expect again in 2013.

We’ve got Richardson projected to finish as the seventh-best fantasy running back this season, toting the rock for about 1,200 yards and six scores. He’ll make a name for himself through the air, too, catching around 50 passes.

From a comparables standpoint, T-Rich scores a lot like Clinton Portis did in 2007. That season, Portis eclipsed 1,650 all-purpose yards and scored 11 times: a solid upside choice for South America.

Barring injury, Richardson’s downside is a 2011 Chris Johnson. You may be thinking negatively about that, but Johnson wasn’t that bad statistically that year, rushing for over 1,000 yards and receiving 400 more. The Browns running back should be able to top that.

C.J. Spiller: Asia

Upside Comparable: LeSean McCoy in 2011, 282 Fantasy Points

Downside Comparable: Mike Bell in 2006, 132 Fantasy Points

Oh, boy. The mother of all the lands: Asia. If you go after Asia early, you better have a backup plan. Protecting 12 territories from enemy fronts is no easy task. Typically, if you’re going after Asia, you’re going all-in. That could be the case for C.J. Spiller in 2013.

Let’s first talk about his upside. Other than Adrian Peterson, you could argue that no other running back has more potential than Spiller this upcoming season. And if you’re in the “Adrian Peterson can’t get close to what he did last year” camp, you could even argue that Spiller has more.

Remember what LeSean McCoy did in 2011? Let me remind you: He scored 20 touchdowns. 20. Do you want 20 touchdowns from your fantasy running back? That’s what Spiller could do in terms of fantasy production this season.

But that comes with a risk, of course. Remember what Mike Bell did in 2006? I doubt it, so let me remind you. Bell rushed 157 for 677 yards and eight scores on the ground, and caught 20 passes for 158 receiving yards through the air. In total, the Broncos back compiled 132 fantasy points. That’s what you could be in for with the back from Buffalo this season.

That’s what you get from going Asia early, though.

Doug Martin: Africa

Upside Comparable: LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005, 323 Fantasy Points

Downside Comparable: Ryan Mathews in 2011, 191 Fantasy Points

Ah, yes. Africa - my go-to continent. Bordered by a typically-weak Southern Europe and a Middle East territory that has been destroyed from Asian war, the only real threat to Africa’s soil is across the Atlantic Ocean in Brazil. Money in the bank, my friends. Money in the bank.

The “go for Africa early” strategy reminds me of 2013’s Doug Martin. There’s little to evade (is there even a handcuff for the Bucs runner at this point?), and the plus in owning it (him) is crazy. Our comparables see Doug Martin’s 2013 potential as high as LT’s 2005 campaign. That season, the Chargers freak running back scampered for 1,462 yards on the ground and compiled a total of 20 scores.

Unlike Spiller, the Muscle Hamster’s floor isn’t all that bad. We may not like Ryan Mathews all that much as a fantasy community, but if we consider his 2011 season Martin’s worst-case scenario, I’d say things are looking up for Number 22 in Tampa Bay this year.

Like Martin, Africa has little risk with high potential. Although the continent sits in the middle of the map, you can’t help but notice how incredibly beneficial it is to own. Go for it this season.

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