NFL
Fantasy Football: Adrian Peterson Should Not Be the First Running Back Drafted in 2016
Some fantasy analysts are touting Adrian Peterson as the top choice in 2016, but that's crazy according to statistics.

Earlier this week, ESPN held their annual Fantasy Football summit where they set the early rankings for the upcoming NFL season. In these rankings, they decided that Adrian Peterson should be the first running back taken in 2016. I respect all of the fantasy analysts at ESPN and really enjoy their summit, but I do disagree with the ranking of Adrian Peterson.

Looking Back

I don't need to tell you that Purple Jesus has been one of the best running backs the NFL has ever seen. According to ESPN, Peterson finished the fantasy season in second just behind Devonta Freeman in running back scoring.

Here at numberFire, we use a measurement called Net Expected Points (NEP) to calculate how well a player performed on each individual play. This is a list of the top-10 running backs in total scoring from last season. I added the NEP statistics so you can see how Peterson compared to the rest of the group.

Player Fantasy Points Rushing NEP NEP/Rush Total NEP
Devonta Freeman 230 7.46 0.03 44.3
Adrian Peterson 217 3.82 0.01 9.99
Doug Martin 187 -1.59 -0.01 10.88
Deangelo Williams 179 14.32 0.07 34.43
Todd Gurley 176 7.98 0.03 18.65
Lamar Miller 173 -2.16 -0.01 19.94
David Johnson 164 18.41 0.15 60.87
Matt Forte 159 -0.04 0 24.83
Chris Ivory 159 -18.07 -0.07 -7.81
Danny Woodhead 149 -6.38 -0.07 -6.38


Peterson ranked eighth in Total NEP -- which measures rushing and receiving performance -- out of the top-10 last season, and it was the lowest Total NEP score he's seen over the last five years. He also, for the record, led the NFL in touches in 2015 with 327 carries and 30 receptions.

Year Total NEP
2010 25.06
2011 28.57
2012 49.84
2013 16.38
2014 Suspension
2015 9.99


It makes sense that his NEP would decline over time, especially considering his elite seasons were some of the best the league has ever seen.

This Is Sparta!

Though it's a little arbitrary, here's how running backs have performed the season after a 300-plus carry season since 2011. The first table focuses on the change in rushing attempts.

Player Year Rushing Attempts Rushing Attempts in Following Season Change +/-
Demarco Murray 2014 392 193 -199
Lesean McCoy 2014 312 203 -109
Lesean McCoy 2013 314 312 -2
Marshawn Lynch 2013 301 280 -21
Arian Foster 2012 351 278 -73
Adrian Peterson 2012 348 279 -69
Alfred Morris 2012 335 276 -59
Doug Martin 2012 319 127 -192
Marshawn Lynch 2012 315 301 -14
Maurice Jones-Drew 2011 343 86 -257
Michael Turner 2011 301 222 -79


Whether it was minuscule or massive, each back over the past five seasons saw their rushing attempts decrease.

Next, we'll look at how rushing yards changed after a 300-plus carry season with the same players.

Player Year Rushing Yards that Season Rushing Yards in Following Season Change +/-
Demarco Murray 2014 1845 702 -1143
LeSean McCoy 2014 1319 895 -424
LeSean McCoy 2013 1607 1319 -288
Marshawn Lynch 2013 1257 1306 49
Arian Foster 2012 1424 1224 -200
Adrian Peterson 2012 2097 1266 -831
Alfred Morris 2012 1613 1275 -338
Doug Martin 2012 1454 456 -998
Marshawn Lynch 2012 1590 1257 -333
Maurice Jones-Drew 2011 1606 414 -1192
Michael Turner 2011 1340 800 -540


Only Marshawn Lynch increased his yardage total among the group. The rest decreased in yardage, and it was by the hundreds.

Bouncing back from a 300-plus carry season seems like a difficult task, as many running backs break down the year after such high usage. It likely won't get easier with Peterson since he just turned 31 in March, which is old for a starting running back.

Act Your Age, Not Your Shoe Size

Peterson is third among active running backs in career carries with 2,381, only trailing Frank Gore and Steven Jackson.

Peterson is also among the 10 oldest running backs -- Fred Jackson leads the league at age 35.

How have 30-plus year-old running backs done coming off of a 300-plus carry season? According to Pro Football Reference, only 10 running backs aside from Peterson have done this since 2000. The first table looks at rushing attempts.

Name Year Age Rushing Attempts that Season Rushing Attempts in Following Season Change +/-
Lamar Smith 2000 30 309 313 4
Lamar Smith 2001 31 313 209 -104
Curtis Martin 2003 30 323 371 48
Priest Holmes 2003 30 320 196 -124
Eddie George 2003 30 312 132 -180
Curtis Martin 2004 31 371 220 -151
Corey Dillon 2004 30 345 209 -136
Tiki Barber 2005 30 357 327 -30
Tiki Barber 2006 31 327 Retirement N/A
Thomas Jones 2009 31 331 245 -86
Adrian Peterson 2015 30 327 N/A N/A


Aside from Hall-of-Fame running back Curtis Martin, most backs saw their carries drop significantly.

Next, we'll look at the change in rushing yards.

Name Year Age Rushing Yards that Season Rushing Yards in Following Season Change +/-
Lamar Smith 2000 30 1139 968 -171
Lamar Smith 2001 31 968 737 -231
Curtis Martin 2003 30 1308 1697 389
Priest Holmes 2003 30 1420 892 -528
Eddie George 2003 30 1031 432 -599
Curtis Martin 2004 31 1697 735 -962
Corey Dillon 2004 30 1635 733 -902
Tiki Barber 2005 30 1860 1662 -198
Tiki Barber 2006 31 1662 Retirement N/A
Thomas Jones 2009 31 1402 896 -506
Adrian Peterson 2015 30 1485 N/A N/A


Again, Pitt football alum Curtis Martin was the only running back since the turn of the century to see an increase in stats in his 30's after three hundred or more rushing attempts.

Closing Argument

After all of this has been said, Peterson could put together a 300-touch, double-digit touchdown season, but it's an unlikely outcome based on historical stats. It's more likely that we begin to see the aging process take effect. Father Time is still undefeated.

Even if Peterson fights off Father Time for another season and rushes 250-300 times for 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns, does that still make him worthy of the first-overall running back selection?

If Peterson was the clear-cut only remaining elite back, then we could all see an argument for taking him first. But when you can wait a few more picks and take David Johnson or Jamaal Charles, or even another round and take Lamar Miller or Doug Martin, it seems very risky to spend your first-round pick on Peterson.

Maybe I will be wrong and Peterson will run wild again this season, but I would rather trust history on this one.

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