The Cleveland Browns' Front Office Just Owned the Eagles
Everyone's been making fun of the Cleveland Browns' front office this offseason.
Maybe that'll stop now.
It's been rumored that the Eagles were planning to move up in next week's draft in order to snag the second pick, especially after new head coach Doug Pederson called quarterback prospect Carson Wentz -- wait for it -- "elite".
Well, today, the Eagles made a deal with Cleveland to more than likely snag Wentz at pick number two.
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) April 20, 2016
Yo, Philly, I'm really happy for you, I'ma let you finish, but that may be one of the worst trades of all time.
If you recall, just last week, the Rams traded up to get the top overall pick in this year's draft. And according to analysis by our own Dan Pizzuta, they probably gave up a little too much.
Dan looked at Chase Stuart's Draft Pick Trade Calculator, which uses Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value metric, a measurement of how valuable a player is. The reason Stuart's calculations are a little more interesting than the well-known Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is because it's based entirely on actual production from guys who were drafted at those picks, whereas Johnson's has to do with market value. That's a huge difference.
We're not sure what future picks the Eagles are sending just yet -- we need to know how they perform in 2016 to understand that. But what we do know is that they sent the 8th, 77th, and 100th overall picks this season in exchange for the probable Wentz pick. Now check this out:
Yes, you're reading this correctly -- without even factoring in future picks, the Eagles still lost the trade according to Stuart's chart. And remember, those future picks are a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder for the Browns and a 2017 fourth-rounder for the Eagles.
For reference, when only dealing with 2016 picks, the Titans saw an Approximate Value return of 40.7 in their trade versus St. Louis' 45.4. The future picks put the Titans over the edge and made them winners, but the values there weren't even close to what's happening in this Browns-Eagles trade.
The Jimmy Johnson chart does show a win for the Eagles when looking only at 2016 draft picks, but factoring in the future picks, Cleveland still gets a massive victory with the deal.
You have to question what in the world the Eagles are doing. Even if Wentz becomes something, making moves like this over time will certainly hurt a franchise. Plenty of studies have shown that loading up on draft picks is the smartest route to go, because teams just aren't that much better than other ones at making correct picks, at least in the long run. It's a game of probability.
Clearly Cleveland's analytically-minded front office gets that, while the Eagles don't.