Fantasy Football: Can Michael Floyd Keep Producing?
Former novelist Arthur Herzog said, "If two's company, three's a crowd."
While I can't be fully certain of what situation he was referring to, I know it wasn't the Arizona Cardinals wide receiver situation.
Since last year, the Cardinals have featured Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd as their top receivers. And early in the year, Floyd looked like the odd man out, as he couldn't crowd their company.
But of late, things have changed. What's made Michael Floyd become such a consistent fantasy asset?
Through Week 5, Floyd only had two games with over three targets. In that time, he totaled 16 targets, which comes out to 3.2 targets per game because he miss. At this point in time, the Cardinals attempted 148 passes, which meant that Floyd's 16 targets made up just 10.81% of the Cardinals passing offense.
Over the same span, Fitzgerald saw 44 targets (29.73% target share), and Brown saw 31 targets (20.95% target share), accounting for over half of the Cardinals' targets. These two receivers left little room for a third receiver to have much success in the offense.
With the low target share, Floyd only produced one 50-yard receiving game through Week 5. He also only saw two red zone targets, and he didn't produce any touchdowns with them. He ended Week 5 with 16 targets, 8 catches, and 104 yards on the year.
Starting in Week 6, though, Floyd has only played in one game where he's seen fewer than three targets. Over this time, he has 52 targets in his seven games played, which amounts to 7.43 targets per game -- he has more than doubled his early season target share.
In the games Floyd has been active, the Cardinals have attempted 245 passes. They've thrown 35 passes per game in this time, up from the 29.6 per game through Week 5.
Floyd has doubled his target share to 21.22% during this time period.
When Floyd is active, Fitzgerald has 71 targets (28.98% target share). Even with his nagging injury, Brown has 43 targets (20.77% target share) on 207 attempts, as he missed the Cleveland game in Week 8.
In other words, the Cardinals have adjusted their offense to feature Floyd as much as Brown, and now rely on three receivers to carry the load in the passing offense.
With the increase in volume, Floyd has 32 receptions for 548 yards and 6 touchdowns since the end of Week 5.
Yes, volume has played a huge role in his fantasy success. But his 6 touchdowns on 52 targets represents an 11.54% touchdown-per-target rate over this time, which is borderline crazy for a guy who doesn't have the history of being a huge touchdown scorer. To put things into perspective, his rate of scoring touchdowns on a per target basis since Week 5 is better than what we've seen from touchdown scorers Rob Gronkowski and Odell Beckham across the 2015 season.
Although touchdown regression should hit Floyd, he does face the Eagles and Packers to end the fantasy football year. This weekend is definitely a matchup that Floyd should exploit especially, as wide receivers have lit up the Eagles throughout the season.
Since Week 6, Floyd has finished in the top 25 for wide receivers in PPR leagues in all but one game that he's played. So, again, because of his volume increase, he has a dependable floor.
The question surrounding Floyd going forward, though, will be just how high his ceiling is. If he can show an ability to continue to score touchdowns at a high rate, then his ceiling will be high. But if math works out, owners may not see top-10 production.
Floyd has earned weekly consideration, but don't be surprised if he slows down the touchdown count. If it doesn't happen this year, it will at least hit next year and in the long run.