FanDuel Defenses to Target in Week 13
After a one-week hiatus for Thanksgiving, we’re back to help you win on FanDuel this week.
Whether you want to spend up elsewhere or are relying on sleeper picks to fill out your skill positions, we have options at every price range this week.
This week’s picks are highlighted by division matchups and an in-state rivalry, and once again we are targeting a couple replacement quarterbacks.
We have chosen and analyzed each matchup with the help of our signature metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which compares a team's or player's performance relative to expectation-level.
Here are four defenses to consider for your Week 13 FanDuel lineups.
Arizona Cardinals (at St. Louis)
FanDuel Price: $5,400
numberFire Projected Points: 12.64
The Cardinals have scored the fourth most fantasy points among defenses this year and are favored by 5.5 points at the Rams, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points opposing defenses in 2015.
St. Louis has the third lowest projected point total of any team this week and will likely have Case Keenum back under center for his second start of the year. Of the 52 quarterbacks with 25 or more drop backs this season, Keenum’s -0.20 Passing NEP per drop back ranks 49th, and the Rams offense as a whole ranks dead last in the NFL with -48.42 Adjusted NEP.
The Rams have given up at least one sack in 10 of their 11 games and turned the ball over nine times over their past three contests. That makes for a great matchup against the Cardinals, who rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive NEP (1.39), have forced 8 sacks over their past three games, and are second in the NFL with 15 interceptions.
Arizona is the most expensive defense on FanDuel this week but remain our best value pick of the week due to their high projected point total. If you can afford them, get them into your lineup with confidence.
New York Jets (at New York Giants)
FanDuel Price: $4,600
numberFire Projected Points: 9.59
The Jets are favored by 2.5 points in what is technically an away game but is played in their home stadium that they share with the Giants.
The Giants rank 26th in the NFL in Adjusted Rushing NEP (-17.96), the injury filled offensive line has given up 14 sacks over their last six games, and Eli Manning has thrown five interceptions over his last three games. Last week, the Giants offense gave up three sacks and three interceptions to a Redskins defense the ranks 15th in Adjusted Defensive NEP (43.10).
The Jets rank fifth in Adjusted Defensive NEP (-8.31), have three or more sacks in six games this season, and lead the NFL with 11 fumble recoveries.
We project the Jets to have the second most FanDuel points among defenses this week, and at $800 less than Arizona, they allow for more spending in the rest of your lineup.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville)
FanDuel Price: $4,400
numberFire Projected Points: 9.2
The Titans are favored by 2.5 points against a Jaguars team that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
Jacksonville’s -2.29 Adjusted NEP ranks 29th in the NFL, Blake Bortles has thrown the second most interceptions (13) of all quarterbacks, and the offensive line has allowed two or more sacks in 9 of their 11 games this season.
The Jaguars beat the Titans 19-13 in Week 11, but Tennessee mustered together four sacks and two turnovers. The Titans are going into this Week 13 matchup with the fourth most sacks (32) in the league.
Keep an eye on the injury report for the Jets game. If Darrelle Revis is out and the Giants' offensive line recovers from injuries, Tennessee could be an excellent pivot play.
San Diego Chargers (vs. Denver)
FanDuel Price: $4,000
numberFire Projected Points: 8.82
The Broncos' offense has improved under Brock Osweiler but still ranks 30th in Adjusted NEP. Osweiler has thrown four touchdowns and two interceptions in three appearances and is playing behind a Broncos offensive line that has given up 13 sacks over their last three games.
The Chargers' defense has racked up five sacks over their past two games and now has five games this season with three or more sacks.
As four-point underdogs, the Chargers are certainly far from a lock but can generate enough points through sacks to generate value at minimum price.