After taking a look at the Top 4 Waiver Pickups for this week earlier on today, let's look at the flip side of the coin: guys we expect to be one hit wonders. The textbook case of the week 1 one-hit wonder is Frisman Jackson of the 2005 Cleveland Browns. Remember his 8 catch, 128 yard game on opening day against the Bengals? No? Well, neither do most people not from the Jackson family - Frisman was out of pro football a year later and now works on the Northern Illinois Coaching Staff. It happens every year; people mortgage the farm (aka #1 waiver priority) for one-hit wonders. We here at numberFire like to help you avoid that heartache. Here's the guys this week that are more Frisman Jackson than Victor Cruz.
Four Fantasy Football Week 1 One-Hit Wonders
Kevin Ogletree - Dallas Cowboys
Week 1 Fantasy Points: 13
Leagues Owned: 49.4%
Here are numberFire's Week 2 WR Projections. Want to find Kevin Ogletree? Start scrolling. Keep going. You're almost there. I swear we didn't forget him... and... stop! He's comfortably sitting there as the #80 receiver on our board this week, sandwiched in between the immortal Leonard Hankerson and the quick-to-forget Brian Quick. Why so low? Simply put, the Cowboys have a ton of options. Between Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and a now-healthy Jason Witten, Tony Romo's going to have his fair share of targets to spread the ball around to. Everybody references the work Laurent Robinson put in for Dallas last year, but most people forget that A. he was already a starting receiver in St. Louis before coming to Dallas and B. he only had two more targets than Miles Austin for the season despite playing in four more games. If Kevin Ogletree receives double-digit targets in a game again where all three of Romo's main targets are playing, I'll be shocked. And even his catch rate from Wednesday's game was an anomaly: his 72% clip was miles better than the 57% catch rate he put up in limited time last season. The OgleTree of Life of life bears false fruit; resist the temptation.
Alshon Jeffery - Chicago Bears
Week 1 Fantasy Points: 14
Leagues Owned: 11.5%
Remember how far down you scrolled on the numberFire Week 2 WR Projections to find Ogletree? Now scroll further. Yes, that's good. And stop! Now you're at Alshon Jeffery, the rookie receiver from the Bears who went for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Colts on Sunday. Want to know why he's the #116 wide receiver on numberFire's list this week? The first main reason has to do with targets: Jay Cutler threw his way only 14% of the time in week 1, when Brandon Marshall received three times the number of targets (15) as any other receiver on the team. Jeffery's five targets were third on the team behind Marshall and Matt Forte, but he's not the clear-cut #2 receiver quite yet: Earl Bennett also had four targets on the day (catching three of them) and Devin Hester went 2-2 on balls Cutler threw his way as well. Jeffery will have to show me something more than three catches against a weak Indianapolis defense before he's worth being picked up against a likely angry Packers team.
Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 1 Fantasy Points: 18
Leagues Owned: 2.1%
Ever expect to see Blaine Gabbert sitting anywhere near the top ten in QBs after week 1? Neither did I, and probably neither did Blaine Gabbert. However, after a 260 yard, 2 TD day against the Vikings, Gabbert may look attractive to some fantasy owners. Those fantasy owners deserve to either lose their team or be forced to actually have a Jaguars QB as their fantasy starter. I'm not sure which fate is worse. Gabbert is the dead-last starting QB this week in our projections, directly above the not-so-awesome fantasy football stylings of Our Savior Tebow. Facing off against a Texans defense that picked off Ryan Tannehill three times last week, it's safe to say Gabbert will be facing a tougher defense than he did in the Minnesota Vikings. Gabbert performed adequately in week 1 with a 0.34 NEP per pass average, but I expect a regression down to the mean of -0.15 NEP per pass he averaged last season. It's a law in fantasy: whenever a good game against a bad defense flies in the face of all other data you have, never trust that good game.
Marcedes Lewis - Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 1 Fantasy Points: 11
Leagues Owned: 4.4%
Much like the fools gold of Gabbert's first game, Marcedes Lewis is more like a Volkswagen than a Mercedes fantasy-wise. Despite having the fourth-highest fantasy total among tight ends in week 1 with 11 points, Lewis drops to the #32 TE slot in week 2 with only 3.04 projected points. Lewis may have gotten a red zone look that got him the touchdown, but that was one of the few looks that went his way - Lewis tied for fourth on the team in targets behind Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and the awesomely-named Cecil Shorts. He may have caught all five throws Gabbert threw his way on Sunday, but that seems to be out of the norm for Lewis. His 2011 catch rate was an absolute abomination at 45.88% of 85 targets, and his catch rate has never sat above 66% in six pro seasons. Just as Gabbert can't be trusted going into a game against the Texans, neither can Lewis.