FanDuel Defenses to Target in Week 11
I’ve mentioned many times in this weekly column that St. Louis and Denver’s defenses are playing so well that we will continue to use them until they prove us wrong.
Well last week they proved us wrong, so this week, we will be staying away from them and focusing on defenses with better matchups.
Last week’s sleeper pick was our best of the season so far, as the minimum-priced Redskins finished as the fifth highest scoring fantasy defense.
We have a defense in every price range again this week, and we’re looking to take advantage of plus matchups with all three of our defenses playing against second-string quarterbacks.
Once again, we have chosen and analyzed them with the help of our signature metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which compares a team's or player's performance relative to expectation-level.
Here are three defenses to consider for your Week 11 FanDuel lineups.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. San Francisco)
FanDuel Price: $5,400
numberFire Projected Points: 12.5
We project Seattle to score the most fantasy points of any defense this week, and their price reflects that.
The Seahawks are favored by 13 points at home against the 49ers, who are averaging a league low 14 points per game. In their Week 7 meeting earlier this year, Seattle held San Francisco to 3 points, and the 49ers have scored a combined 13 points over their last three games against Seattle.
As the 28th ranked team in Adjusted NEP (2.56), San Francisco will be severely outmatched against the Seattle defense that ranks third in Adjusted Defensive NEP (-22.24).
Seattle is struggling to generate interceptions but has a great chance to change that this week against Blaine Gabbert who threw two interceptions in Week 9 during his only start this season. That was the only game this season in which the 49ers did not give up a sack, but it was against the Falcons who have the fewest sacks in the league.
Even including that Week 9 game, the 49ers are allowing 3.11 sacks per game, and the Seahawks are coming into this week averaging 3.40 sacks over their last five games.
$5,400 is a steep price to pay, but the Seahawks are averaging the second most fantasy points per game among defenses this year, and this is their best matchup yet.
New York Jets (at Houston)
FanDuel Price: $4,700
numberFire Projected Points: 10.61
The Jets are the fourth best team according to Adjusted Defensive NEP (-18.63) and have a great matchup against the Texans, who rank 29th in Adjusted NEP (1.40). It gets even better for the Jets on the ground as they are the second best team in Adjusted Rushing Defensive NEP (-22.01), and Houston is dead last in Adjusted Rushing NEP (-27.10).
If the Texans can’t get anything going in the running game and Brian Hoyer is forced to miss the game with a concussion, Houston will rely on T.J. Yates to lead the offense. Yates only has 187 career drop backs and has a negative Passing NEP in each of his four seasons prior to this year.
The Texans' offensive line that has given up 12 sacks over their past three games will be up against the Jets defense that has racked up 10 sacks in their last two games.
We project the Jets' defense to score the second most fantasy points of any team this week, and they can be used at a bargain rate of only $4,700.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. St. Louis)
FanDuel Price: $4,100
numberFire Projected Points: 8.78
The Ravens are certainly not a top tier defense, and their price reflects that, but they have a great matchup at home this week against the Rams, whose -26.86 Adjusted NEP is dead last in the NFL.
St. Louis’ 18.4 points per game is better than only San Francisco, and they are entering this game with a new quarterback.
He will be up against the Ravens' defense that ranks ninth in the NFL in sacks per game (2.67)
At only $4,100 and playing at home against a struggling offense with a new quarterback, the Ravens are a great option to plug into lineups in which you can’t afford to spend up on a defense.