There was a sense of optimism when the New York Giants signed Shane Vereen in the offseason -- he was coming off being an important, versatile piece of the Super Bowl winning New England Patriots, and was even the a focal point of the formation controversy against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Game. His ability as a pass-catcher allowed that formation to happen, forcing a defender to line up across from him out of habit. The same type of formation couldn't be used with such effectiveness with, say, Andre Williams out in the slot.
That’s what made the Vereen signing exciting. Not only had the Giants and Eli Manning not had that type of weapon at their disposal, but there are only so few weapons like that in the entire league.
After Manning had a bounce-back season under the West Coast based offensive system of Ben McAdoo, Vereen was supposed to be an added element to that quick strike offense.
Then games happened, and Vereen was little more than a typical third-down back sharing snaps with Williams and Rashad Jennings. Through the first four weeks of the season, the snap share between Vereen, Jennings and Williams was almost as split as it could be for a running back-by-committee approach: 105, 91, 70.
Even in last Sunday’s win over the San Francisco 49ers, which kind of turned into Vereen’s breakthrough game for the Giants, his playing time with Jennings was just about even, 39 to 30.
But Vereen got the most important snaps of the game -- when trailing on the final drive -- and that’s what should matter the most here.
On a Fateful Drive
During that final drive on Sunday night, the Giants were in trouble. Not just because they had blown yet another lead late in a fourth quarter and found themselves needing a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining, either. The Giants had no receivers. Not in a literal sense, of course, but due to hamstring injuries to both Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle, the Giants were running out 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) with Dwayne Harris, Geremy Davis and Myles White as their three wideouts. Vereen took the field as not just the best running back for the situation, but arguably the best receiver.
Vereen was targeted three times on the eventual 10-play game-winning drive, and each Vereen reception positively impacted expected points and win probability. Vereen’s second catch of the drive, a 16-yard gain on 2nd-and-10 from the Giants’ 40-yard line, added 12.87% to the win probability, per numberFire Live. His third catch, a 24-yard gain on a 3rd-and-10 from the San Francisco 44 was worth 19.26% in win probability. Only two entire drives during the game, excluding the game winner, swung win probability more.
Yes, late in close games, win probability is more volatile than it would be in the middle of a game, but Vereen was very much the Giants’ best chance of advancing the ball on that drive, and he came through.
More to Come?
This wasn’t just a one drive exception, though it should be the catalyst for and inclusion on more plays going forward. Vereen has been the best option in the backfield according to our Navorro Bowmann just enough to create separation for an out and an easy catch. Vereen’s ability to do this from the backfield and the slot makes him New York’s best mismatch in this area, with the possible exception of any human attempting to cover Beckham.
The Giants are already the eighth most efficient offense this season by schedule-adjusted NEP per play, while not using one of their best weapons to its full potential. Sunday was the best glimpse of what that potential could be, and if the Giants are smart it should only serve as the beginning.