With a quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, there appears to be very little separating the four teams in the NFC East. At first glance, the division looks like a cluster of mediocrity, with none of its members over .500 and only the AFC South laying claim to a worse cumulative record through the season's first month. 

The Eagles stand at 1-3 while the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins are all 2-2. But according to our algorithms, the likelihood of the Giants winning the NFC East is nearly double that of any other team in the division. While we peg the respective likelihoods of each of their divisional foes winning the division at somewhere between 15.5 and 22.2 percent, the Giants boast a whopping 44.3 percent chance of being crowned NFC East champions.

Why is that?

A Closer Look

The Giants' defense surprisingly ranks first in our schedule-adjusted Defensive Rushing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant find themselves in when they return to action. If a healthier Redskins secondary can patch some holes in its 21st ranked passing defense, or if the Eagles' anemic rushing offense -- currently ranked dead last with a -14.46 Adjusted Rushing NEP -- can begin to click, then the tide of the NFC East may begin to turn.

Still, if not for two fourth-quarter comebacks, the Giants would be 4-0, and both the math and the calendar suggest that the smart money is on New York.

When the dust settles, it's not unlikely that the NFC East champion will be a team with single digit wins (we only project a paltry 8.6 wins for the Giants). But with two improbable Super Bowl runs during the Coughlin-Eli era -- both after sneaking into the playoffs with just 9 and 10 wins -- would anyone really want to travel to East Rutherford on Wild Card Weekend?