Do the Jets Have Better Playoff Odds With Ryan Fitzpatrick Under Center?
I was enjoying a Jersey Mike's sub for lunch today, and saw a tweet hop into my timeline.
Geno out 6 to 10 weeks becuse of an altercation in the locker room. Broken jaw. Requires surgery. IK Enemkpali hit him. Been released. #Jets
— dom cosentino (@domcosentino) August 11, 2015
Well, apparently Geno Smith broke his jaw in a locker room altercation. That happened. And now the Jets are down their starting quarterback for at least a month and a half.
So as it stands (and according to our metrics), it'd be tough for someone to argue that Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the reason to go with Geno is obvious: you want to know what you have with him so that you can make more reasonable decisions in the future.
If I'm New York, I start with the predictable thing at quarterback -- Fitzpatrick -- and if things go south, I move to the player who has shown little upside through the first two years of his career. That gives you a win-win situation: If Fitzpatrick is good enough, the Jets will be playoff contenders. If he's not, you at least get to see what Geno Smith is made of with a better arsenal.
According to our Chief Analyst, Keith Goldner, the difference in quarterback player here, however, is pretty much irrelevant in terms of odds of making the playoffs. So while Fitzpatrick may be a slightly better option than the now-injured Smith, it's not a significant enough upgrade to really make a difference to their season-long bottom line.