Do the Jets Have Better Playoff Odds With Ryan Fitzpatrick Under Center?

Geno Smith is now out 6 to 10 weeks with a broken jaw. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to lead this team to victory?

I was enjoying a Jersey Mike's sub for lunch today, and saw a tweet hop into my timeline.


Well, apparently Geno Smith broke his jaw in a locker room altercation. That happened. And now the Jets are down their starting quarterback for at least a month and a half.

Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick, a quarterback our numbers have favored since his signing back in March. From an article written by yours truly back when Fitzmagic signed with the Jets:

So as it stands (and according to our metrics), it'd be tough for someone to argue that Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the reason to go with Geno is obvious: you want to know what you have with him so that you can make more reasonable decisions in the future.

However, the Jets' offseason moves show that they still want to win now, as they signed cornerback Darrelle Revis to a big contract and traded for veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

If I'm New York, I start with the predictable thing at quarterback -- Fitzpatrick -- and if things go south, I move to the player who has shown little upside through the first two years of his career. That gives you a win-win situation: If Fitzpatrick is good enough, the Jets will be playoff contenders. If he's not, you at least get to see what Geno Smith is made of with a better arsenal.

According to our Chief Analyst, Keith Goldner, the difference in quarterback player here, however, is pretty much irrelevant in terms of odds of making the playoffs. So while Fitzpatrick may be a slightly better option than the now-injured Smith, it's not a significant enough upgrade to really make a difference to their season-long bottom line.