He's coming off knee surgery. He's missed 12 games in his first two seasons. He's playing on a team with a quarterback in bad standing with the head coach.
The two top receivers on his team combined for 200 targets last year, and the top three saw 273. The tight end behind him on the depth chart outperformed him last year and should be in the mix for snaps this year as a result.
He didn't score a single touchdown despite hauling in 50 passes and seeing 10 red zone targets in 11 games last season.
He's 6'3" and 237 pounds, yet he's not very athletic.
His name is MockDraftable.com profile. And according to PlayerProfiler.com, his closest player comparable is 163rd overall in best-ball formats. He's also going undrafted in FantasyFootballCalculator.com mock drafts.
"Free" is a pretty modest asking price for who impressed with his blocking improvements entering the year, and that can mean that he'll be able to fend off Game Splits App, Reed's best work as come against pass defenses that ranked outside the top 12. 18 of his 20 games have come against defenses ranked 13th to 32nd against the pass, too, so it's a pretty big sample. That's good news for him. In those 18 games, he's averaged 8.92 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring, which would be roughly 143 points during a full season. That'd be about TE6 or TE7 numbers during a full season.
Here's Reed's schedule, including his opponents' 2014 ranks in our schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play metric and fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
| Team | Adj. Def PNEP/Play | FP vs TE | Team | Adj. Def PNEP/Play | FP vs TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 19 | 11 | New Orleans | 29 | 5 |
| St. Louis | 12 | 4 | Carolina | 8 | 12 |
| NY Giants | 22 | 24 | NY Giants | 22 | 24 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | 3 | Dallas | 23 | 27 |
| Atlanta | 28 | 9 | Chicago | 27 | 32 |
| NY Jets | 21 | 31 | Buffalo | 2 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay | 31 | 14 | Philadelphia | 20 | 3 |
| New England | 4 | 21 | Dallas | 23 | 27 |
Half of those 16 games come against teams that ranked 14th or worse against the tight end, and 12 of them come against teams that ranked 19th or worse in our pass defense metrics. That's pretty enticing for a player who could be in line for a starter's share and who has played efficient football in the past.
No More Convincing
If you aren't sold on Reed, then I understand. There are quarterback concerns, and there are risks that he won't even lay claim to the majority of tight end snaps or targets. I get that.
But the important thing to remember is that he's not going to cost you anything in your draft, and if he were to stay healthy, the matchups are right for him to be a productive tight end. He's a free upside play with a pretty enviable schedule -- particularly in the middle of the season. What's not to like?