The Miami Dolphins believe in Ryan Tannehill. At least after Davone Bess over 100 targets in 2012, so the efficiency of that process is up for debate. 2014 was still a top-heavy approach -- Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry both saw over 100 targets -- but the other options were based on whoever was open.
Take a look at the target splits over the past three years to see the difference:
2012
| Receiver | Targets | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 131 | 26% |
| Davone Bess | 104 | 20.60% |
| Anthony Fasano | 69 | 13.70% |
| Reggie Bush | 52 | 10.30% |
| Charles Clay | 33 | 6.50% |
2013
| Receiver | Targets | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 141 | 23.70% |
| Brian Hartline | 133 | 22.40% |
| Charles Clay | 102 | 17.20% |
| Rishard Matthews | 67 | 11.30% |
| Brandon Gibson | 43 | 7.20% |
2014
| Receiver | Targets | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 115 | 19.30% |
| Jarvis Landry | 112 | 18.80% |
| Charles Clay | 84 | 14.10% |
| Brian Hartline | 63 | 10.60% |
| Lamar Miller | 52 | 8.70% |
| Brandon Gibson | 51 | 8.60% |
Changing Corps
In both 2012 and 2013, the top two targeted receivers saw more than 20 percent of the passes in Miami's offense. Then, with the switch last season, no receiver had a target share over 20 percent, and six saw at least eight percent. That’s quite a significant change in approach and is likely to continue in the second year of Lazor’s offense.
Of those six receivers who saw at least eight percent of the 2014 targets, only two will be on the roster in 2015 -- Jarvis Landry and Lamar Miller. Wallace was traded to Minnesota, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson were cut, and Charles Clay was signed to an offer sheet as transition-tagged player. Miami didn’t just get rid of those players without replenishing the receiving corps though. The Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills from New Orleans, signed Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron as free agents and drafted DeVante Parker from Louisville in the first round.
Numbers-wise, that actually matches up with what the Dolphins lost from last season, but it might not be so simple to just to plug those players into the departed players’ targets. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Landry take over as Tannehill’s top target, though only three targets separated Landry from that title last season. Landry isn’t known as a world beater down the field, but he doesn’t need to play that role, and the mixture of body control, hands and agility make him a great asset in the middle of the field.
Pegging in the rest of the receivers is tricky, mostly because of health concerns. It wouldn’t be out of the question to throw Stills into the Wallace role in the offense as the deep threat, especially considering his success playing that part in New Orleans. Last season, Stills led all receivers with at least 30 targets in Reception NEP per target. He was the only receiver to average more than a full point, at 1.05 expected points per target on his 83 looks. The next leading receiver was Martavis Bryant at 0.95. Stills also held the top spot in 2013 when he had a Reception NEP per target of 1.16 on 50 targets.
Stills, though, has been held back by a calf injury early in training camp. The injury is not expected to hold him out for an extended period of time -- he’s not likely to miss even preseason games -- but a leg injury of any sort is not ideal for the team’s primary deep threat. Training camp reviews -- take them how you will -- have been positive on the development on Tannehill’s deep ball, which would also be a boost to Stills’s usage.
Parker, despite his high pedigree, may be filling in the Brandon Gibson role because of an injury of his own. He had surgery on his foot back on June 5th, and his recovery time is still a question mark for the team. With the depth Miami does have at receiver, at least on paper, it may not be a need for the team to rush the rookie into the lineup, instead letting him recover fully.
The biggest question mark could be at tight end with Jordan Cameron. When healthy, Cameron has been one of the top receiving tight ends in the league, but a history with concussions has limited the amount he’s been healthy. He was only able to play in 10 games last season, and the concern among teams led him to sign a relatively cheap free agent deal with the Dolphins. Cameron isn’t concerned with future concussion issues, but the concern never really comes until that next hit.
Outside of Landry, Greg Jennings is currently the healthiest receiver on the roster. During his age-31 season last year with Minnesota, Jennings still saw 92 targets and was fairly efficient, ranking 29th in Reception NEP per target out of 189 players with at least 30 targets. In an ideal world, Jennings would play last season’s Hartline role but, especially early in the season, Jennings could step in as that second option behind Landry before taking a back seat to the younger receivers on the squad.
There’s a lot of talent here, and at full healthy there’s going to be a lot of passes thrown to a lot of different receivers. The question now, and possibly into the season, will be health. Until then, whoever can get the field can potentially see the ball coming his way.