There is a contagious illness that leads people from making rational, intelligent decisions to insane mood swings, irrational behavior, and defensive paranoia. They become twitchy until they can get treatment, and it’s notoriously hard to get rid of. This illness occurs every year; it’s an epidemic.

The disease I’m speaking of is, of course, Rookie Fever.

One such NFL team and its fanbase is certainly in the throes of Rookie Fever, and that’s the San Diego Chargers. Having drafted Wisconsin running back has stated that he will use multiple players. What should we expect from the 2015 Chargers’ backfield?

First Response

We’re going to look at this two ways: first, I will show how Mike McCoy and the Chargers actually use running backs in their offense; second, I will show the value that each has provided to their running backs in the past, in terms of Draft Kit predicts the following touches for each of the San Diego backs.

This looks pretty spot on, based on what we know about the historical division of labor in both the Chargers’ and McCoy’s offenses. This conservative projection on Gordon still puts him as the 16th-best running back in fantasy this year, if he can be efficient and healthy. Based on our averages assume a floor of 200 rushes and 25 receptions, with an upside of 225 and 45 for him.

Because the main duty of the secondary running back in this offense is to catch passes, we can assume Woodhead earns that slot out of the gate, as he is clearly the superior receiving talent, but Oliver could push for playing time if Woodhead’s recovery from injury complicates his return. Based on our averages, we’re a little low on Woodhead, and I would put him at a floor of 70 rushes with 45 receptions, with upside for 90 rushes and 60 receptions.

Oliver -- assuming he’s the third-stringer right now -- might be a little high, as I think his low-end value is about 50 rushes with 15 receptions, while his upside seems around 65 rushes with 30 receptions. As for Donald Brown? He gets the Lance Ball role.