NFL
Let’s All Get Excited About Teddy Bridgewater
Could a breakout be coming for Minnesota’s second-year quarterback?

It’s pretty easy to get excited about an analytics favorite prior to being drafted, but his rookie season metrics were rather mediocre, at least by our air yards per attempt -- the average each pass physically traveled in the air -- which ranked just 23rd of 33 qualified quarterbacks. Thanks to the better second half of the season, it was still well above Carr’s 2.85, which ranked 31st.

Take Bridgewater’s two 2014 games against the Detroit Lions. Detroit was our fourth best defensive in the league by Adjusted Defensive NEP per play and 10th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Facing the one of the league’s best defenses that excels at creating interior pressure isn’t an easy task for any rookie quarterback, let alone having to do it twice. There was a difference, though, in how Bridgewater was able to perform just eight weeks apart.

In the first game in Week 6, Bridgewater’s inexperience was evident and led to three interceptions, no touchdowns and just 188 passing yards. During the first meeting, he made throws like this after failing to look off the safety or even taking his eyes off of 26-yard pass downfield to eight-man box argument is also overstated in its ability to help the passing game. This doesn’t mean the impact of Peterson won’t help Bridgewater, but it’s not going to be because the defense abandons pass defense each week.

While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Vikings finish as the second best team in the NFC North, Bridgewater himself has already tried to temper those expectations. “Right now we’re not as good as we think,” he told USA Today. Our projections are also modest on the second-year quarterback’s 2015 outlook: 3,753.12 passing yards, 20.93 touchdowns, 16.31 interceptions.

“Right now we’re not as good as we think.” Right now in July, that is probably true. The regular season will be a different story. It’s okay to get excited about Teddy Bridgewater.

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