30th receiver overall, in redraft leagues. His owners' investments paid off, as he finished 25th in PPR scoring at the position.

Drafters seem to be forecasting a huge jump in production from him this year because his current ADP has him going as the 18th receiver off the board.

To put it bluntly, this is insanity. Yes, Watkins may very well develop nicely as a player, and be more talented going into his sophomore year, but the situation in Buffalo this year is absolutely terrible for wide receivers from a fantasy football perspective. There are very few wide receivers in the league I would consider drafting that highly if they were in the Bills' offense, and Watkins is not one of them.

How bad is it?

Offensive Scheme

This offseason, the Bills brought on former 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman to run their offense. This already spells trouble for Bills receivers.

In his four years as the offensive coordinator, the highest a 49ers receiver ever finished in PPR scoring was 16th. The average finish for their top wideout was 22nd. Unless you believe Sammy Watkins to be significantly more efficient than Spotrac. He will also be the fourth-highest paid tight end in the league by per-season average.

That's not exactly a contract you give to someone that you don't see playing a big role in your offense.

The Percy Harvin addition is a bit of a wildcard. It's hard to know what to make of Harvin, and there are vastly differing opinions on him floating around.

If there's anything to be said for Harvin it's that the league hasn't given up on him. Despite bouncing between three teams over the last three seasons and being hampered by injuries Harvin has seen 7.1 targets per game, the same amount he saw over his first three years in Minnesota.

Even in a small role, Harvin will see a fair number of targets, and when combined with the McCoy and Clay additions, there are a lot of mouths to feed in the Buffalo offense.

Quarterback Play

In case the lack of opportunity isn't enough to sour you on Watkins, he's also going to have to deal with worse quarterback play than he did in 2014.

looking the worst of the group in mini-camp, Buffalo projects to have absolutely horrible quarterback play in any scenario.

This article isn't intended as a knock on Sammy Watkins as a football player. He had a solid 2014 and looks to have a promising career in front of him. Fantasy football, though, is about so much more than talent.

It would take a truly generational talent to justify going off the board as the 18th receiver while part of this offense, and even then I'm not sure it would be good value. With fewer targets to go around, more mouths to feed, and a worse quarterback behind these targets, it just makes absolutely no sense to be drafting Sammy Watkins ahead of where he finished last year. You'll be saving yourself a pick if you let one of your leaguemates to be the one to reach for him.