Everybody loves rookies now.
After that 2014 season of 1,000 or so breakout receivers, expectations are high for the new class of 2015. At the top of the list, of course, is 51st overall pick in best-ball leagues this season and the 22nd receiver overall.
As for standard re-draft mocks, he's going 52nd overall and as the 21st receiver. In PPR formats? His overall ADP jumps up to just 50th, but he is the 22nd receiver off the board.
This means that owners are expecting Cooper to be a low-end WR2 and, therefore, a weekly starter. What do 40 players have secured 130 points as a rookie while playing wide receiver). Rather, the question is whether he will and whether paying sticker price is a smart move (it rarely is).
Causes for Concern
A big reason why Cooper might get held back is his team situation. According to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, the Raiders were the 30th-best offense in the league last year on a schedule-adjusted, per-play basis. They lost 0.07 points relative to expectation level with every play run, and that doesn't bode well for Cooper's upside.
The team's passing as a whole ranked 29th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, losing 0.05 points that an average quarterback would have secured in those same situations.
Carr's Passing NEP of -40.94 was worse than any quarterback in the league not named Blake Bortles (-97.97). Carr's per-drop back Passing NEP (-0.07) ranked 33rd among 37 quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 drop backs last year (Carr dropped back 622 times).
His Pass Success Rate of 41.00% indicates that the Raiders added to their NEP on just 41% of his drop backs, which ranked 34th. That's not a recipe for successful receiving chances. Cooper could see plenty of targets, but unless the offense improves, he'll be lacking red zone opportunities.
While it is true that the Raiders threw the ball on 56.25% of their red zone plays (third-highest in the league) last year, only two teams failed to run at least 100 plays in the red zone: Oakland and Jacksonville (both had 96).
So, in the end, Oakland attempted just 54 red zone passes last season, more than only four other squads.
A Verdict
It's not as though Cooper can't reach the Watkins or Matthews level of production and live up to his ADP. It really comes down to the touchdowns, but that's something that Oakland may not offer him unless the offense plays like the polar opposite of itself from 2014.
Cooper projects to be a great long-term buy in just about any format, but unless he slides in your re-draft drafts, it's hard to justify taking him where he is currently being taken.
In PPR formats, he should be the better bargain, as his ADP is (somehow) lower in PPR formats as of early July. He could easily rack up plenty of receptions when the game script calls for it, but expecting him to flirt with double-digit touchdowns doesn't make sense on paper, so his standard-scoring ceiling isn't exactly sky high.
Cooper might be a trade target during the season if his owner is underwhelmed with having a piece of the Oakland offense, so he might be available at a more reasonable price in the middle of the season, but as of now, Cooper is a player to avoid. That is unless you believe the Oakland offense will be much improved.