With a stellar group of rookie receivers entering the league in 2014, it would be easy to forget about some of the top rookies from 2013. called himself average in 2014 earlier in the offseason. Taking a look at the numbers below, that might have been graded on a curve.
| Year | Rec | Rec NEP | Targets | Target NEP | Rec NEP/Target | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 71 | 96.42 | 104 | 59.09 | 0.93 | 68.27% |
| 2014 | 77 | 56.72 | 121 | -3.43 | 0.47 | 63.64% |
Even without a full grasp of these numbers, the disparity would be enough to explain itself. Dropping 41.1 percent in Reception NEP from year-to-year is never great, especially with a 8.5 percent increase in receptions. His target value is even more concerning with a 105.8 percent decrease in Target NEP while his targets increased 16.3 percent. Allen’s Reception NEP per target was on par with Some of the offseason analysis surrounding Allen focused on how he faced tougher competition in his second season compared to his rookie year. In five of his 14 games played last season, Allen went against a cornerback who was voted to the All-Pro team following 2014. As the team’s number-one receiver, Allen faced this play. Allen (at the top) is able to get open across the middle, but Rivers’ read wasn’t to his side. Sure that’s just one play and any receiver could get open against any corner for one lay during a game, but there were multiple times Allen could and did get open but wasn’t targeted.
The Chargers had three other players in 2014 who were targeted at least 90 times. Allen was the best target, but he wasn’t the only one. That’s not great for Allen’s individual stats, but it helped keep San Diego ranked ninth in Adjusted Passing NEP for the season.
Unintended Targets
Per-target metrics can be great to look at in order to find a receiver’s role on the team, but there can be some noise involved in the target numbers. Allen saw a team-high 121 targets, but not all of them were catchable balls. Take the play below during the Week 13 game against the Baltimore Ravens. On the official stat sheet, Allen is listed as the target but is nowhere close to where the ball went, which was right into the hands of linebacker
This isn’t enough to say Allen’s decline in per target metrics isn’t concerning -- it is -- but a few of these and other throwaways might not make the drop quite as bad as it seems.
Big Games
What could be concerning is Allen’s lack of big games during the 2014 season. Allen had five 100-yard games during his rookie season, but that dropped to three in his sophomore year. Those three games came against Jacksonville, St. Louis and a depleted Baltimore secondary. With that, Allen’s number of bad games increased, too. In 2013 Allen had only three games with fewer than 30 yards receiving. In 2014, that shot up to five. In three of those five games he was targeted more than five times.
Sometimes those games were just a play away from crossing the line of bad to good. Take this play against the Jets. In the game Allen had three receptions for 25 yards. On this play, Allen was just fingertips away from at least a 30-yard catch.
It’s a play where he does a great job adjusting to the ball, something he excelled at in college thanks in part to an inaccurate quarterback. This is a play Allen probably would have made in 2013 and will probably make more often than not in future opportunities. Earlier in the game, Allen nearly had a 22-yard touchdown on a jump ball in which Allen beat the corner at the high point but had the ball taken away for an interception when hit by a safety on the way down.
They’re two plays that don’t count but also two that show Allen was much closer to big plays than a first glance at his stats may indicate.
What’s Next?
Allen will still likely lead the team in targets, but the abilities of Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson, San Diego’s two other receivers this season, could continue to eat into Allen’s overall production.
Still, expectations will be high for the San Diego passing offense, even as the run game should be much more effective than last year (28th in Adjusted Rushing NEP). Where Allen fits is most likely somewhere between his first two seasons.
We have Allen projected for 85.88 receptions, 1,003.84 yards and 5.6 touchdowns. That places him as WR25 overall in fantasy. While that certainly wouldn’t rank him as one of the best receivers in the league, there is potential for a higher ceiling with a few more breaks than last season.