2013: Was Anquan Boldin the Most Underrated Receiver This Season?
2014: Why Anquan Boldin Is Better Than You Think
2015: Why Do Fantasy Football Owners Hate Anquan Boldin?
There's still time for this to change, but early average draft position data pegs MyFFPC.com.)
I don't really get it. Since entering the league, take a look at what Boldin's done from a statistical and fantasy (PPR) standpoint.
| Year | Team | Games | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Fantasy WR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | ARI | 16 | 165 | 101 | 1377 | 8 | 4th |
| 2004 | ARI | 10 | 104 | 56 | 623 | 1 | 28th |
| 2005 | ARI | 14 | 171 | 102 | 1402 | 7 | 4th |
| 2006 | ARI | 16 | 152 | 83 | 1203 | 4 | 13th |
| 2007 | ARI | 12 | 99 | 71 | 853 | 9 | 19th |
| 2008 | ARI | 12 | 127 | 89 | 1038 | 11 | 7th |
| 2009 | ARI | 15 | 127 | 84 | 1024 | 4 | 18th |
| 2010 | BAL | 16 | 109 | 64 | 837 | 7 | 24th |
| 2011 | BAL | 14 | 106 | 57 | 887 | 3 | 35th |
| 2012 | BAL | 15 | 112 | 65 | 921 | 4 | 30th |
| 2013 | SFO | 16 | 129 | 85 | 1179 | 7 | 15th |
| 2014 | SFO | 16 | 130 | 83 | 1062 | 5 | 18th |
OK, so let me get this straight. Boldin's currently leaving the board as the 45th wide receiver in PPR leagues according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com, but the worst he's ever -- ever -- finished in fantasy football is WR35. And that came back in 2011, his first year as a Baltimore Raven, in an offense that featured a whole lot of tight end targets (145).
A Locked-In Role in San Francisco
When Boldin made the move to San Francisco, he became Rich Hribar, the NFL average for targeting wide receivers was 60.3% last year -- Kaepernick and the 49ers were way over that total. But even if we assume the 49ers are just average in the category, that still means good things for Boldin.
If the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick have the same volume through the air as last year, with this 60.3% mark, we're looking at 289 targets to wide receivers.
Last season, non-Boldin and Crabtree receivers saw 30% of the 49ers wide receiver targets. In other words, with the exact same volume from Kaepernick as a season ago, we're looking at roughly 203 targets between Boldin and Smith.
This is the absolute floor, to me, for these two players. Because there are plenty of things that help a player like Boldin's cause. First, we know that Kaepernick hasn't targeted his wide receivers in a traditional way -- last season, only the Eagles (again, hat tip to Rich Hribar) targeted their wideouts at a higher rate. We also know that the experience behind Boldin and Smith is lacking -- Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington have started a combined zero NFL games. And lastly, why should we assume the 49ers are going to throw the ball at such a low rate this season (they had the seventh-fewest drop backs last year) considering their offensive line woes, a change in offensive coordinator and no running back with legitimate experience?
There's also the idea that Boldin could still out-target Torrey Smith, who's seen over 110 targets in a single season just once in four years. And with a whacky offensive line, wouldn't the player who can create his own separation closer to the line of scrimmage be the more logical option for Colin Kaepernick?
All of this is to say that Boldin, as long as he's healthy, should reach 100 targets -- if not plenty more -- in 2015. And with that kind of volume, along with his historical effectiveness, a WR45 price tag is silly.