“It is a period of civil war. The Believers, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Haters. During the battle, rebel agents of logic and reason managed to steal secret plans to the Haters’ ultimate weapon, the recency bias, an armored argument with enough power to destroy an entire fantasy team. Pursued by the Haters’ sinister agents, MockDraftable, seen below.
A player in the 99th percentile of a trait would mean he ranked higher than 99% of all others players at his position in that trait -- the best possible. A cursory glance at Michael’s chart shows that he ranks among the top 5% of all running backs in Combine history in the agility drills (20-yard shuttle and 3-cone) and the top 10% in all explosiveness drills (10-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump). His pedigree apparently holds up flawlessly.
What about his production in the NFL to this point? Among lower-usage backs, does he still impress? The table below shows Christine Michael’s production via our signature Spotrac).
| Year | Salary | Bonus | Guaranteed | Cap Hit | Dead Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $4,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,500,000 | $13,500,000 |
| 2016 | $9,000,000 | $0 | $0 | $11,500,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 2017 | $7,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $0 | $12,500,000 | $2,500,000 |
What this means is that Lynch’s 2015 contract will see him reap all $12 million guaranteed of his base salary and signing bonus -- which is prorated through the deal, but is easier to visualize this way--– and if Seattle cuts him, they would have a $5 million penalty (cap hit returned minus dead money). In 2016 and 2017, however, he has no guaranteed money remaining, and the Seahawks would recoup $6.5 million and $10 million in salary cap respectively by cutting him.
By this point, Lynch will be age 30 for the 2016 season and 31 for 2017. While I have written about the typical arc of a running back’s career in terms of both age and seasons, our own Joseph Juan also looked at a back in terms of career carries. What he found in terms of Lynch is pretty halting.
“Both [Lynch and Shaun Alexander] would cross the 1,800 carry mark during seasons in which their teams would make Super Bowl runs, falling just short of an NFL title. Following these seasons marking the apex of their careers… both of these backs would also lose key offensive lineman going into the next season (Steve Hutchinson for Alexander, Max Unger for Lynch)… In the face of the toll such a punishing playing style has likely taken on Marshawn's body, it's a fair question to ask how much longer he can keep up this elite production before he begins to break down like so many other running backs before him.â€
All of this indicates that the end of elite-level “Beast Modeâ€-style production could be coming for the Seahawks’ current lead back, sooner rather than later.
Christine Michael turns just 25 this season, and he is still under contract through his age-26 season in 2016. When Lynch exits C-Link, C-Mike will be waiting to take his place.