Play Index, we can see when Luck ran the ball in 2013, the Colts had an average of 7.46 yards to go for a first down. In 2014 that increased by almost a yard to 8.34.

In 2013 Luck also averaged 8.13 yards per carry, which equates to more than a first down per run given the average needed distance he saw. Not only did he need more yards in 2014, he achieved less, gaining just 5.70 yards per carry. With the success in 2013, Luck picked up a first down on 47.9 percent of his scrambles. In 2014 that dropped down to 40.0 percent. That also shows up in his Success Rate -- the percentage of plays that contribute to a positive NEP. On the ground, Luck had a success rate of 72.92 percent in 2013, but that dropped more than 10 percent to 62.50 percent last season.

Dropping the Ball

Perhaps the biggest difference in Luck’s rushing statistics is not how he ran with the ball, but how many times he dropped it. In 2012 and 2013 Luck was attributed with just one fumble while running the ball in each season. That number does not include strip sacks. In 2014, Luck was credited with six fumbles on rushing attempts, bringing his fumble rate from 2.1 percent in 2013 to 12.0 percent last season.

These were the fumbles credited to Luck, but one, maybe two were really the fault of the quarterback. Of the six fumbles, three were mistakes on the snap and three were failed handoffs. These count as fumbles and carries against Luck because in the boxscore they have to count as something. But here is where we can see how Luck’s Rushing NEP was affected by these fumbles.

When judging by Net Expected Points on a given play, botched snaps and handoffs are essentially a lost cause. Only one of these plays gained yards, a failed handoff to run for a gain of 13 yards on 3rd-and-1. Less often are those plays as fortunate, such as another failed handoff which went to Trent Richardson and was recovered by Cincinnati’s Carlos Dunlap.

With botched snaps, there’s not much Luck can do. Most times quarterbacks can fall on those loose balls because it happens right in front of them. Though there are sometimes when playing defenders like J.J. Watt when the ball can be picked up and run for a 45-yard touchdown, which is exactly what happened in a Week 6 game against the Houston Texans. Giving up a touchdown on offense isn’t great for Expected Points. Neither is just falling on a loose ball and gaining nothing when the offense is expected to gain at least something.

Andrew Luck wasn’t quite as efficient running the ball in 2014 as he has been in the past, but it’s not something that heeds significant worry. Six fumbles isn’t something to be proud of, but the way those fumbles occurred are much less likely to be something that carries over from year-to-year, especially since that was a non-existent problem in Luck’s last two seasons.

With an improvement in simple center-to-quarterback and quarterback-to-running back exchanges, we can expect Luck to once again put up the type of efficiency numbers on the ground that made him one of the league’s smartest scramblers heading into last season.