Earlier this offseason, I took a look at Cruz had this to say about his recovery from the patellar tendon tear he suffered last season:
"Things are going well. I’m running more routes and patterns, feeling more confident all the time in that regard. Same schedule. Just going to take it slow for now."
Even though Cruz is hopeful, there's still no guarantee he’ll return to his previous level of play, or even be ready for the start of the season.
We know all about 12-team PPR mock drafts from FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
Beckham’s position near the middle of the first round should come as no surprise after his monstrous 12-game showing last season. Although prorating his torrid pace out to 16 games for 2015 prediction purposes may not be the most logical practice, even with some regression assumed, he will still be an elite producer.
But the disparity in ADP between Cruz and Randle is a bit confusing. Granted, this is information gathered from mock drafts held in May, which is most likely not what we will see when real drafts start in August. But for a player coming off of a major knee injury who is still not 100% recovered to be drafted six full rounds ahead of a player coming off a career season looks a lot like a market inefficiency to me.
Delving even deeper, below is a table showing both Randle and Cruz’s NEP metrics for the three seasons that both players have shared the field.
| Year | Player | Reception NEP | Targets | Reception NEP/Target | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Rueben Randle | 24.07 | 32 | 0.75 | 59.38% |
| 2012 | Victor Cruz | 107.34 | 143 | 0.75 | 60.14% |
| 2013 | Rueben Randle | 56.15 | 78 | 0.72 | 52.56% |
| 2013 | Victor Cruz | 76.23 | 122 | 0.62 | 59.84% |
| 2014 | Rueben Randle | 78.23 | 127 | 0.62 | 55.91% |
| 2014 | Victor Cruz | 25.45 | 41 | 0.62 | 56.10% |
Even though Randle has never been a true efficiency superstar, he has equaled or topped Cruz in all three of his professional seasons on a Reception NEP per target basis.
Draft-Day Bargain?
There are still reasons why Rueben Randle may never ascend to a high-level of fantasy production. A relative lack of career efficiency, a sub-60% career catch rate, a 50% touchdown regression from his second to third season, and Beckham emerging as a legitimate star (and possible target-hog) are all legitimate concerns.
But given the current cost of acquiring him in fantasy drafts coupled with the potential opportunistic upside -- if the Giants’ offense does indeed take a step forward in year-two of McAdoo’s tenure -- there could be a massive return on investment for those willing to take a swing on Randle.