What goes up must come down. It's the case in the law of gravity, Kim Kardashian's career prospects, and in the case of NFL teams, win totals. With now only six days until the start of the 2012 NFL regular season, numberFire has spent some time taking a look at our projected standings for this season. Yesterday we looked at the five teams with the biggest projected improvements. But today, it's the sadder side of the coin: the five teams that are projected to take the biggest win-loss record hits in 2012. They all have two things in common: they finished .500 or above, and they slightly overachieved to get there. And while not all of these teams will be plummeting to the bottom of the standings quite yet (and two of them still have over 60% playoff odds), fans might want to temper their expectations just a bit entering the season.
Top Five Projected NFL Team Win Decreases
5. starting QB role, a position that numberFire projects he will play just about average as the #23 QB in our draft kit. The team doesn't return a single Pro Bowler (only the Bills, Rams, and Titans got shut out of the game), and first round draft pick Titans' third receiver at best. This looks to be an average team with average... *yawn*... potential...
4. second-toughest NFL schedule this season.
3. this look like the face of a man who's willing to drop three games in the win column to you? While Harbaugh may be intimidating and not willing to accept defeat, this season he may not have much of a choice. The defense looks to be solid once again; the unit that ended 2011 #4 overall in numberFire's list was ranked second in points allowed (14.3 per game) and first in both rushing yards allowed (77.2 per game) and fumble recoveries (15). However, the questions come with the offense. Is decline interview requests because Jim Harbaugh had his tongue surgically removed as part of his free agent deal? These are all (mostly) valid questions, and it's a bit too much for the projections to put the Niners anywhere near last season's excellent 13-3 mark.
2. Kolb-Skelton position battle, the defense played extraordinarily well for John Skelton during his eight games at starter, not allowing over 23 points a single time. As a result, even though the Cardinals only maxed out at 23 points themselves during that 7-2 stretch, the defense allowed them to hold serve. Allow numberFire to be skeptical for a minute, but we highly doubt that the unit ranked #21 on our 2011 defensive charts and only containing a single defensive Pro Bowler (Adrian Wilson, Patrick Peterson made the team as a kick returner) will be able to perform that same feat again. With a likely 4-12 record and Super Bowl odds less than 1%, the Cardinals take our extremely bitter-tasting cake as the team with the largest projected win decrease in 2012.