It's exactly one week until the start of the regular season, Cowboys against Giants on September 5th. And if you're like me, your voodoo doll of Michael Wilbon seems to be, as the unit finished last year ranked #29 in our overall rankings, even a slight tick up the ladder should be enough to win the Bears some games this season. It all hangs on the defense, which I presume is a good thing for Chicago: they finished 2011 as the #1 defensive unit in numberFire's rankings. Despite finishing with a +12 point differential, an even .500 record in a tough NFC North, and a winning 7-5 record in conference, the Bears couldn't hold up under the blizzard of injuries. With everyone from not playing as terribly as you might think, this could be the Jets' time to strike.
3. hardest schedule in the league. However, because of their division, they have over a 50% chance of making the playoffs, mostly on the back of Manning and the defensive unit that allowed 13 points or less five times in their final eight games played. The Broncos' 4.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl is the highest in the AFC West, fourth highest in the entire AFC (behind the Steelers, Ravens, and Patriots), and eighth highest in the entire NFL. That's a far cry from wondering whether Tebow would hit a 40% completion percentage for the Broncos last year. And it would mean a turnaround in the franchise's recent fortunes as well: the Broncos haven't had a 10-win season since the Jake Plummer glory days of yore (2005), when the Broncos went 13-3 and made the AFC Championship Game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
2011 Overall Rank: #30
Projected 2012 Record: 4.9-11.1
Final 2011 Record: 2-14
OK, so maybe it's not fair to include a team that won the first overall pick in last year's draft in the season's biggest record improvements. There's really nowhere to go but up. But while numberFire predicts the Rams to only go from 2-14 to a projected 3.1-12.9 record, the Colts jump almost three wins to a semi-respectable 4.9-11.1. While Andrew Luck is certainly a big part of this Indianapolis Renaissance (two words you're not likely to see side-by-side too often), a big part of the Colts' increased chances have to do with their division. That almost 5-11 record puts them dangerously close to the Jaguars, who are projected to go 5.3-10.7 and finish third in the AFC South. The Titans aren't too much further ahead, projected to go only 7.7-8.3 on the year. If the Texans collapse this season, the Colts might actually be a team that could sneak into the playoffs, as their 21.3% playoff odds gives them a better chance than six other teams: the Cardinals, Jaguars, Browns, Redskins, Bucs, and Rams.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Overall Rank: #9
Projected 2012 Record: 11.1-4.9
Final 2011 Record: 8-8
We're down to our #1 most improved team, and it's the Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps this would be an important place to note that our projections don't take injuries into account: they're just way too hard to predict. Most of the time. When you're not dealing with Michael Vick, that is. But alas, in these projections he's healthy the entire season, and if that's the case it's easy to see why the Eagles would be the most improved team. Despite finishing with an 8-8 record last season, the Eagles had an insanely high +68 point differential, the highest differential in the NFC East (the division champion Giants actually had a -6 point differential) and the fifth highest difference in the NFC behind the 15-win Packers, 13-win Saints, 13-win 49ers, and 10-win Lions. Of the Eagles' eight losses last season, five were by a touchdown or less, and two of the remaining three came in games when Vince Young was the starting QB. Behind the Packers and Saints, the Eagles have the third highest projected NFC record this season. Don't be surprised if they're dancing down Broad Street come January when the Eagles are back in the playoffs.