To tag or not to tag is occasionally a question front offices have to ask themselves during the offseason. Less often do those decisions involve which type of tag to use. Most of the time, teams use the standard franchise tag to hold onto a player for another year after his contract has expired. Teams use the transition tag less often, which allows the original team a right of first refusal on a contract offer from any other team.
Between figuring out how to sign reportedly offered Clay a five-year, $38 million contract on Tuesday night. Miami has five days to decide to match or let Clay go to Buffalo without receiving any compensation in return.
Clay By the Numbers
Clay was regarded as one of the top tight ends in this year’s free agent class behind third-highest guaranteed money for a tight end behind be over the first two seasons, along with a $10 million roster bonus at the start of the 2016 season.
In order to make the Ndamukong Suh contract to work and be able to sign anyone else this offseason, the second year of Suh’s contract is the biggest on the books. He counts for just $6.1 million on Miami’s cap in 2015, but that balloons to $28.6 million in 2016. For the Dolphins to fit Suh and the first two years of the proposed Clay contract together -- along with either a fifth-year option or extension for Ryan Tannehill to hit the books in 2016 -- the front office will have to rearrange a bunch contracts a season after rearranging a bunch of contracts.
Fits on The Field
After Scott Chandler signed with the Patriots, Buffalo was left with 2013 seventh-round pick Chris Gragg and 2014 undrafted free agent Chris Manhertz alone on the depth chart at tight end. Buffalo clearly has a need at the position and sticking it to a division rival must have a nice feeling attached, but they didn’t have to go this far.
Buffalo would have a nice set of receiving weapons on paper, pairing Clay with Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin. Then you realize Matt Cassel is the probable quarterback throwing those players the ball. Or that Chandler ranked 13th among tight ends last year in Reception NEP per target, and while his contract details with New England have yet to be announced, it’s unlikely it approaches $38 million. Clearly Clay can do other things with his versatility, but does that really equate to the additional money spent on the tight end?
If Miami chooses to not match the offer sheet, they're still set up pretty well at tight end for 2015. The Dolphins signed Jordan Cameron to a two-year, $15 million deal in hope he can stay healthy. Cameron only saw 48 targets last season, only playing in 10 games, but ranked 19th in Reception NEP per target. If Cameron can’t stay healthy, the Dolphins have third-year tight end Dion Sims, too. Sims also saw limited time on the field last year -- just 36 targets -- but was efficient in that time. His 0.72 Reception NEP per target was the 12th best among tight ends, and the same per target value of Zach Ertz.
Ideally, Miami would probably like to keep Clay, but placing the transition tag on him to begin with indicates they're open to the possibility of him not returning. They ended up getting a division rival to likely overpay and commit a significant amount a guaranteed money to just an OK player. The Bills probably thought they were sticking it to the Dolphins, but this deal has a much higher probability of the Bills sticking it to themselves.