FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Wild Card Saturday (Chargers at Jaguars)

Two young signal-callers take centerstage on Saturday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Los Angeles Chargers.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chargers are 2.5-point road favorites in a game with a 47.5-point total. That makes the implied score 25.0-22.5 in favor of LA.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to main slates. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Of the six wild card games, this is the one I'm most looking forward to -- both for DFS and real life.

It's a fun single-game slate for DFS because we have a handful of legitimate MVP options, with our model projecting six players for double-digit FanDuel points. Let's start with the quarterbacks -- Justin Herbert ($14,000 on FanDuel) and Trevor Lawrence ($15,000).

Herbert paces this slate with a projection of 19.0 FanDuel points, per our numbers, and with him listed at an easy-to-like salary, he should be a popular MVP play, although I don't think anyone will be an overwhelmingly chalky MVP pick due to how man viable options there are.

The matchup is a tasty one for Herbert, as the Jags have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (18.3). They're a pass-funnel D, according to our metrics, ranking eighth-best against the run and seventh-worst versus the pass. Herbert hasn't rushed for more than eight yards in any of his last six outings, but he's capable of offering some rushing juice. Even if Mike Williams ($11,500) -- who missed practice Wednesday -- can't go, Herbert is a high-upside option.

Lawrence had a second-year breakout and put up some huge fantasy days over the second half of the season, including back-to-back games of 27.82 and 33.42 FanDuel points in Weeks 14 and 15. He got to the Chargers for 25.18 FanDuel points earlier this campaign. While LA is a run-funnel defense -- 2nd-worst against the rush and 10th-best versus the pass -- Lawrence projects for 17.2 FanDuel points and is squarely on the MVP radar.

With the Bolts struggling against the run, Travis Etienne ($12,500) could pop off. Etienne was bottled up last week by the Tennessee Titans' elite run defense. Things should be much easier for him on Saturday night, as LA permitted the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (23.6), including the second-most rushing yards.

It's a tad worrying that Etienne played just 55% of the snaps versus Tennessee in what was basically a playoff game, but he'd logged a snap rate of at least 71% in each of his previous four full games (removed early in Week 17). I like him as an MVP pivot off the quarterbacks, and our algorithm projects him to score 15.1 FanDuel points.

This is a dream spot for Austin Ekeler ($16,000), who we forecast to post 15.9 FanDuel points. The Jags gave up the most targets, second-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to running backs. Giddy up. Ekeler caught all eight of his targets the first time these two teams played, and he's seen at least four targets in all but two games this campaign. He might be a little over-salaried as the highest-salaried player on the slate, but Ekeler's pass-game prowess gives him a through-the-roof ceiling. He could be relied upon as a pass-catcher even more if Williams sits.

Speaking of Williams sitting, that would boost the outlook for Keenan Allen ($13,000), and he can feast on a leaky Jacksonville pass defense. Since coming back from injury, Allen has averaged 10.4 targets, 7.5 grabs and 84.4 receiving yards per game across the final eight contests. He's been a beast, and of all the players we've touched on in the MVP section, Allen is likely to be the least popular multiplier. I think he's plenty viable at MVP, especially if Williams is sidelined. Our algorithm has him totaling 13.3 FanDuel points.

Flex Breakdown

At various points throughout this season, Jacksonville has gotten good production from all of their top pass-catchers -- Christian Kirk ($13,500), Zay Jones ($11,000), Evan Engram ($9,000) and Marvin Jones ($8,000). Lawrence has really spread the ball around of late, with all of these guys garnering a target share between 17% and 20% over the past four weeks.

Our model has all four of them projected very similarly in terms of point-per-dollar output. On paper, it's not a good matchup for any of them. LA has held wideouts to just 24.5 FanDuel points per game, the seventh-fewest. Tight ends have produced 8.9 FanDuel points per game, the 12th-fewest.

We project them in the order they're listed above. That means Marvin Jones is last, but I have a lot of interest in him as a value cog. While he usually lags behind Zay and Kirk in snaps, Marvin has been targeted 23 times over the last four weeks, which is good for a 17% target share, a mark that is equal to Zay's and Engram's target share in that span. Marvin also has a 28% air yards share during those four games. When Marvin is on the field, Lawrence looks for him, and Marvin sees a good amount of downfield action.

On the Chargers' side, if Williams plays and reports have him being fairly healthy, he's a strong option against this pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. In his 11 full games, Williams amassed a mouth-watering 35% target share, and his big-play ability is ideal for a single-game slate.

If Williams is out, Josh Palmer ($10,000) gets a boost. Palmer played in five games in which Williams sat or exited very early, and in those five, Palmer averaged 9.2 targets and 74.4 yards per game. Palmer can deliver in a friendly matchup. If Williams gives it a go, Palmer is likely over-salaried and isn't nearly as enticing.

DeAndre Carter ($7,500) becomes a decent dart throw in the event Williams doesn't play. Carter was in on at least 87% of the snaps in four of the five games in which Williams missed or barely played. He averaged only five looks per game in that split, but any wideout with a salary this low who will play a ton of snaps needs to be on our radar.

Our model is high on both kickers as we project Riley Patterson ($8,500) and Cameron Dicker ($8,500) for 9.0 and 8.2 FanDuel points, respectively. Dicker hasn't missed a field goal or extra point in any of his last five games. Patterson has missed only one kick (a field-goal try in bad weather at the New York Jets) across his past seven games.

Neither defense projects well. We peg the Los Angeles Chargers D/ST ($9,000) to generate 6.9 FanDuel points and have the Jacksonville D/ST ($9,500) scoring 5.6. Joey Bosa is expected to be fine for LA after an injury scare last week. That's a big lift for the Chargers' defense.