NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 17
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | $8,400 | 22.4 | 2.72 | 17.1 | 28.3 | 39.2% | 1.59 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,000 | 22.3 | 2.52 | 17.6 | 27.6 | 37.2% | 1.02 |
| Jared Goff | $7,400 | 19.3 | 2.62 | 14.4 | 24.5 | 23.6% | 1.34 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,100 | 18.2 | 2.60 | 13.3 | 23.3 | 19.0% | 1.22 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,800 | 17.5 | 2.25 | 12.6 | 23.1 | 16.7% | 0.62 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,300 | 17.4 | 2.38 | 12.1 | 22.8 | 16.3% | 0.80 |
| Brock Purdy | $7,000 | 17.3 | 2.53 | 12.2 | 22.7 | 17.1% | 1.00 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,600 | 17.0 | 2.30 | 11.7 | 22.5 | 16.0% | 0.59 |
| Tom Brady | $7,200 | 16.7 | 2.30 | 11.6 | 22.0 | 14.4% | 0.71 |
| Geno Smith | $7,100 | 16.1 | 2.31 | 11.5 | 21.4 | 12.0% | 0.67 |
| Gardner Minshew | $7,500 | 16.1 | 2.07 | 11.0 | 20.7 | 10.0% | 0.39 |
| Mike White | $7,000 | 15.7 | 2.24 | 10.6 | 20.8 | 9.2% | 0.62 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,700 | 15.5 | 2.38 | 10.7 | 20.5 | 9.8% | 0.75 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,500 | 14.8 | 2.23 | 9.3 | 19.0 | 7.8% | 0.54 |
| Tyler Huntley | $6,600 | 14.7 | 2.25 | 10.4 | 19.6 | 7.3% | 0.61 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $6,100 | 14.7 | 2.35 | 9.7 | 19.0 | 7.6% | 0.73 |
| Mac Jones | $6,400 | 14.5 | 2.19 | 9.1 | 19.2 | 6.7% | 0.57 |
| Desmond Ridder | $6,300 | 13.6 | 2.06 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 5.4% | 0.42 |
| Russell Wilson | $6,900 | 13.5 | 1.97 | 8.7 | 18.7 | 5.7% | 0.34 |
| Davis Mills | $6,300 | 12.9 | 2.11 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 4.6% | 0.43 |
| Sam Darnold | $6,800 | 12.7 | 1.86 | 8.0 | 17.5 | 3.9% | 0.21 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,600 | 12.7 | 1.94 | 7.9 | 17.7 | 4.2% | 0.32 |
| Nick Foles | $6,500 | 12.4 | 1.94 | 8.5 | 17.0 | 3.2% | 0.26 |
| Jarrett Stidham | $6,100 | 12.1 | 1.99 | 7.2 | 16.5 | 1.8% | 0.33 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,400 | 11.8 | 1.76 | 7.1 | 16.4 | 2.3% | 0.23 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,500 | 20.1 | 2.10 | 14.1 | 25.3 | 49.9% | 2.50 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,200 | 18.2 | 1.98 | 13.3 | 23.8 | 40.7% | 2.01 |
| James Conner | $8,000 | 15.9 | 1.98 | 10.8 | 21.3 | 30.1% | 1.79 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $7,000 | 15.0 | 2.09 | 10.2 | 19.7 | 23.6% | 2.29 |
| Travis Etienne | $7,700 | 14.8 | 1.86 | 9.1 | 19.6 | 24.0% | 1.28 |
| Brian Robinson | $6,900 | 14.7 | 2.10 | 9.6 | 20.0 | 24.6% | 2.20 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,600 | 14.3 | 1.85 | 9.0 | 19.4 | 23.0% | 1.24 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,300 | 14.2 | 1.71 | 9.0 | 19.4 | 23.3% | 0.94 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,300 | 13.7 | 1.88 | 8.5 | 18.7 | 20.3% | 1.32 |
| Josh Jacobs | $8,500 | 13.5 | 1.63 | 9.0 | 18.4 | 17.7% | 0.64 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $6,700 | 13.4 | 1.95 | 8.5 | 18.1 | 18.6% | 1.59 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,800 | 13.3 | 1.99 | 8.1 | 18.8 | 21.4% | 1.48 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $6,700 | 12.9 | 1.91 | 8.3 | 17.9 | 16.8% | 1.48 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,800 | 12.4 | 1.61 | 7.4 | 17.1 | 12.7% | 0.65 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,000 | 12.4 | 1.77 | 7.9 | 16.9 | 13.3% | 1.09 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,100 | 12.4 | 1.72 | 7.3 | 17.4 | 15.7% | 0.93 |
| David Montgomery | $7,500 | 12.1 | 1.67 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 15.0% | 0.77 |
| Najee Harris | $6,500 | 11.8 | 1.84 | 7.7 | 16.6 | 11.6% | 1.29 |
| Zonovan Knight | $6,400 | 11.6 | 1.70 | 6.6 | 15.8 | 10.7% | 1.02 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $6,800 | 11.3 | 1.62 | 6.0 | 15.3 | 8.5% | 0.66 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $6,300 | 11.2 | 1.76 | 6.3 | 16.8 | 10.2% | 1.12 |
| Zack Moss | $6,900 | 11.0 | 1.53 | 6.0 | 15.3 | 10.1% | 0.61 |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,600 | 10.8 | 1.62 | 6.4 | 15.5 | 10.2% | 0.78 |
| A.J. Dillon | $7,200 | 10.6 | 1.48 | 6.0 | 15.3 | 8.7% | 0.52 |
| Rachaad White | $6,800 | 10.4 | 1.47 | 5.7 | 14.8 | 6.5% | 0.58 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $5,900 | 10.3 | 1.77 | 6.1 | 14.8 | 6.9% | 1.09 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $6,500 | 9.4 | 1.47 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 3.7% | 0.54 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $6,500 | 9.3 | 1.39 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 5.6% | 0.43 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,600 | 9.1 | 1.44 | 4.8 | 13.4 | 3.3% | 0.43 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,900 | 9.1 | 1.55 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 3.8% | 0.65 |
| Latavius Murray | $6,700 | 8.7 | 1.28 | 4.4 | 12.9 | 3.3% | 0.34 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $6,400 | 8.6 | 1.32 | 4.7 | 12.5 | 2.4% | 0.34 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,000 | 8.0 | 1.33 | 3.9 | 12.0 | 3.1% | 0.38 |
| Michael Carter | $6,100 | 7.4 | 1.21 | 3.3 | 11.1 | 1.4% | 0.25 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $5,400 | 6.8 | 1.27 | 2.9 | 10.8 | 1.2% | 0.37 |
| Damien Harris | $6,000 | 6.4 | 1.07 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 0.6% | 0.16 |
| Khalil Herbert | $5,500 | 6.3 | 1.16 | 2.5 | 10.1 | 0.9% | 0.27 |
| Chase Edmonds | $4,500 | 6.1 | 1.34 | 2.5 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.47 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.16 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 1.0% | 0.29 |
| Gus Edwards | $6,100 | 5.8 | 0.92 | 1.6 | 9.6 | 1.3% | 0.14 |
| Jaylen Warren | $5,700 | 5.4 | 0.91 | 1.7 | 8.6 | 0.4% | 0.10 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,500 | 5.4 | 0.97 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 1.0% | 0.16 |
| Deon Jackson | $6,200 | 5.2 | 0.81 | 1.5 | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Williams | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.91 | 0.9 | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.23 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $9,200 | 16.8 | 1.82 | 11.7 | 22.5 | 46.1% | 1.30 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,200 | 16.5 | 2.00 | 11.8 | 21.3 | 44.7% | 2.11 |
| Tyreek Hill | $9,000 | 14.5 | 1.63 | 9.2 | 20.1 | 36.5% | 0.72 |
| Davante Adams | $8,500 | 12.4 | 1.46 | 7.7 | 17.5 | 25.4% | 0.45 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,400 | 12.4 | 1.43 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 24.1% | 0.45 |
| Garrett Wilson | $7,300 | 12.0 | 1.68 | 6.8 | 17.2 | 23.1% | 0.83 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,600 | 11.8 | 1.48 | 6.6 | 16.4 | 20.6% | 0.54 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,600 | 11.4 | 1.46 | 7.0 | 15.3 | 14.7% | 0.43 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,200 | 10.9 | 1.56 | 7.0 | 14.9 | 12.0% | 0.48 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,600 | 10.8 | 1.60 | 6.6 | 15.0 | 15.2% | 0.74 |
| Drake London | $6,700 | 10.8 | 1.64 | 6.8 | 15.2 | 15.3% | 0.77 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,900 | 10.7 | 1.51 | 6.2 | 15.3 | 16.6% | 0.62 |
| D.J. Moore | $7,000 | 10.6 | 1.51 | 6.0 | 14.7 | 13.5% | 0.52 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,700 | 10.6 | 1.39 | 6.1 | 14.9 | 12.7% | 0.31 |
| Allen Lazard | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.70 | 6.0 | 15.2 | 15.5% | 0.88 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,100 | 10.5 | 1.46 | 5.4 | 15.7 | 18.1% | 0.59 |
| DeVonta Smith | $7,800 | 10.4 | 1.40 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 18.0% | 0.41 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $6,700 | 10.2 | 1.46 | 5.6 | 14.5 | 12.4% | 0.56 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,400 | 10.2 | 1.34 | 5.2 | 14.6 | 15.5% | 0.40 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,800 | 10.1 | 1.49 | 6.5 | 14.1 | 10.0% | 0.49 |
| Marquise Brown | $6,900 | 9.8 | 1.37 | 4.5 | 14.6 | 15.0% | 0.46 |
| Mike Evans | $7,500 | 9.8 | 1.31 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 13.6% | 0.33 |
| Zay Jones | $6,300 | 9.7 | 1.55 | 5.6 | 14.3 | 12.7% | 0.71 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,400 | 9.7 | 1.50 | 5.5 | 14.1 | 10.6% | 0.61 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,000 | 9.6 | 1.63 | 5.0 | 14.2 | 11.5% | 0.74 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $7,000 | 9.2 | 1.25 | 4.8 | 13.9 | 9.0% | 0.31 |
| Chris Olave | $6,800 | 9.1 | 1.35 | 4.5 | 14.0 | 12.3% | 0.42 |
| Jahan Dotson | $6,100 | 9.0 | 1.42 | 4.5 | 13.4 | 9.9% | 0.54 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,600 | 9.0 | 1.32 | 4.6 | 12.8 | 6.5% | 0.33 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,800 | 8.9 | 1.29 | 4.3 | 13.5 | 10.9% | 0.36 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 8.2 | 1.23 | 3.6 | 12.4 | 7.7% | 0.33 |
| D.J. Chark | $6,000 | 8.1 | 1.34 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 8.1% | 0.48 |
| Greg Dortch | $5,300 | 8.1 | 1.57 | 5.1 | 11.6 | 2.1% | 0.64 |
| Christian Watson | $7,600 | 8.1 | 1.04 | 3.8 | 12.3 | 6.2% | 0.12 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,300 | 8.0 | 1.30 | 4.0 | 11.8 | 3.9% | 0.28 |
| Chris Moore | $5,600 | 8.0 | 1.39 | 4.6 | 11.3 | 5.0% | 0.46 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $6,500 | 7.8 | 1.15 | 3.0 | 12.1 | 7.2% | 0.26 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,900 | 7.8 | 1.28 | 4.5 | 10.6 | 1.3% | 0.22 |
| Romeo Doubs | $5,900 | 7.6 | 1.23 | 3.6 | 11.2 | 3.6% | 0.30 |
| Rashid Shaheed | $5,600 | 7.6 | 1.38 | 3.6 | 11.1 | 4.3% | 0.40 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,300 | 7.5 | 1.39 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 4.6% | 0.52 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | $6,200 | 7.4 | 1.29 | 4.3 | 11.4 | 4.1% | 0.27 |
| Richie James | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.26 | 3.9 | 10.6 | 2.4% | 0.30 |
| Corey Davis | $5,500 | 7.2 | 1.31 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 4.1% | 0.42 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $5,600 | 6.7 | 1.21 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 1.7% | 0.25 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,400 | 6.6 | 1.23 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 1.6% | 0.32 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.21 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 2.1% | 0.27 |
| George Pickens | $6,100 | 6.5 | 1.00 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 3.3% | 0.21 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,700 | 6.5 | 1.16 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 0.8% | 0.15 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $5,800 | 6.2 | 1.07 | 2.6 | 10.1 | 2.9% | 0.20 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,400 | 6.2 | 1.15 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 2.1% | 0.26 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,800 | 6.0 | 1.00 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 0.4% | 0.09 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,500 | 6.0 | 1.10 | 1.9 | 10.1 | 2.8% | 0.28 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | $5,600 | 5.9 | 1.06 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1.1% | 0.17 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.15 | 1.9 | 10.2 | 1.7% | 0.31 |
| Alec Pierce | $5,700 | 5.8 | 0.98 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 1.3% | 0.16 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.02 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 0.8% | 0.15 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,900 | 5.5 | 0.94 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 0.8% | 0.10 |
| Russell Gage | $5,900 | 5.3 | 0.89 | 2.4 | 8.1 | 0.2% | 0.04 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,400 | 5.2 | 0.95 | 2.4 | 8.0 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| Mack Hollins | $5,600 | 5.1 | 0.96 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 1.7% | 0.16 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,000 | 5.0 | 1.06 | 1.6 | 8.5 | 0.9% | 0.20 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,300 | 15.4 | 1.85 | 10.4 | 19.9 | 52.0% | 1.28 |
| George Kittle | $7,400 | 10.2 | 1.30 | 5.8 | 14.6 | 23.3% | 0.33 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $7,000 | 9.5 | 1.36 | 5.3 | 13.8 | 18.9% | 0.34 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,300 | 9.5 | 1.48 | 5.1 | 14.0 | 19.7% | 0.59 |
| Evan Engram | $5,800 | 9.2 | 1.62 | 5.5 | 13.1 | 14.6% | 0.72 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,300 | 8.8 | 1.67 | 4.8 | 13.2 | 16.2% | 0.92 |
| Dallas Goedert | $6,000 | 8.2 | 1.38 | 3.9 | 12.3 | 13.1% | 0.44 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,700 | 6.9 | 1.19 | 3.4 | 10.3 | 5.4% | 0.23 |
| David Njoku | $5,600 | 6.9 | 1.22 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 7.8% | 0.31 |
| Taysom Hill | $6,800 | 6.4 | 0.96 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 4.3% | 0.06 |
| Juwan Johnson | $5,700 | 6.3 | 1.10 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 5.6% | 0.25 |
| Tyler Conklin | $4,900 | 6.3 | 1.18 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 4.6% | 0.30 |
| Jelani Woods | $4,700 | 6.1 | 1.33 | 2.6 | 10.0 | 5.3% | 0.47 |
| Darren Waller | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.14 | 1.9 | 10.2 | 6.6% | 0.27 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,100 | 5.7 | 1.13 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 4.6% | 0.27 |
| Noah Fant | $5,200 | 5.5 | 1.05 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 1.7% | 0.15 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,800 | 5.4 | 1.11 | 1.4 | 9.8 | 5.0% | 0.36 |
| Cade Otton | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.03 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 2.9% | 0.20 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,900 | 5.1 | 1.03 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 2.3% | 0.18 |
| Trey McBride | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.10 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 1.4% | 0.19 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $4,700 | 5.1 | 1.06 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 2.1% | 0.21 |
| Robert Tonyan | $5,100 | 4.5 | 0.93 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 2.3% | 0.15 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,500 | 3.7 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 0.10 |
| Eric Saubert | $4,400 | 3.3 | 0.84 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 0.7% | 0.14 |
| Colby Parkinson | $4,500 | 3.1 | 0.68 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 0.4% | 0.07 |
