3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 16
We have a lot of pieces on numberFire geared toward helping you figure out which players you should roster in your DFS contests on FanDuel, but an important aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play.
Narrowing down your list of potential plays by avoiding those who are destined to underwhelm can go a long way toward helping you create winning lineups.
Inevitably, some of the players I feature in this article will blow up and pop for a big game, but that comes with the territory of doing a piece like this one -- unless I'm going to tell you to avoid playing dudes who aren't on anyone's radar. I'm trying to avoid that. I want this piece to be useful.
Here are some players I'm fading on this main slate.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys ($7,500)
On a week with several potential weather issues, Dak Prescott carries none of that risk as he'll be at home inside Jerry World. But he gets a super tough draw versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly is holding quarterbacks to the second-fewest FanDuel points per game (13.8) while ranking fourth versus the pass and eighth in overall defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics.
Dak hasn't had a great ceiling anyway. He scored 22.24 FanDuel points a week ago, and that was his second-highest output of the year. This isn't a strong quarterback slate, especially when you factor in weather issues for guys like Justin Fields and Josh Allen, but it's unlikely Prescott drops a slate-breaking performance.
We project Dak to score 17.8 FanDuel points. If I'm not finding the coin for Allen ($9,500) or Patrick Mahomes ($9,200), I'll likely be looking in Dak's salary range. I'd prefer to roll with Fields ($7,800) or Kirk Cousins ($7,700).
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers ($6,800)
In Brock Purdy's two full games, he's really spread the ball around, giving at least seven total targets to five guys. It makes Brandon Aiyuk a tough sell for me despite the San Francisco 49ers being in a friendly matchup with the Washington Commanders.
Aiyuk has amassed a meager 12% target share across Purdy's two starts, making 7 grabs for 76 yards.
The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites, which is another thing that doesn't bode well for Aiyuk's volume. He's averaging only 5.7 targets per game in wins this year, compared to 8.2 looks per contest in defeats.
Of the healthy wideouts salaried above $6,200, Aiyuk rates out as the worst point-per-dollar play, according to our projections. Around this salary, I have more interest in D.J. Moore ($7,100) and Amari Cooper ($6,700).
David Njoku, TE, Browns ($5,800)
David Njoku and the Cleveland Browns are taking on a New Orleans Saints defense that has put the clamps on tight ends.
For the year, the Saints have surrendered only 6.1 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the second-fewest.
In addition to that, the Browns-Saints game might be the worst weather situation of the weekend, with winds in the upper 20s and very cold temps expected in Cleveland.
Njoku has played 96% and 94% of the snaps the last two weeks, and there's plenty of value in any tight end who is on the field that much -- especially at this modest salary. But among the slate's top 11 tight ends, per our model, Njoku is the worst point-per-dollar option.
