Monday Night Football Betting: Should You Back Baker Mayfield and the Rams Versus the Packers?
What should you expect from tonight's game, and which bets need to be on your radar?
Breaking Down the Matchup
The Packers and Rams have been two of the most disappointing teams of 2022. While it's hard to find a lot of positives for either squad, the Packers haven't been quite as bad as LA has. Our nERD metric rates Green Bay 16th and LA 26th.
For the season, the Rams rank 6th-worst in total offense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, while the Packers sit 18th. Defensively, the Rams rank 12th, and the Packers check in at 19th.
A year after winning his second straight MVP and leading all quarterbacks in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back with a clip of 0.29, Aaron Rodgers has taken a huge step back, recording 0.03 Passing NEP per drop back, which ranks 23rd.
Aaron Jones continues to churn out quality seasons in the Packers' backfield. Among backs with 100-plus carries, Jones' mark of 0.10 Rushing NEP per carry ranks sixth. He also leads the team in catches, hauling in 48 of 58 targets for 328 yards and four touchdowns.
The Rams' offense has been depleted by injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The end result is Baker Mayfield taking over under center. In his debut a week ago, he engineered a late comeback win against the Las Vegas Raiders, but a road game against a better defense figures to be a tough proposition for Mayfield, who has amassed an ugly -0.09 Passing NEP per drop back on the season as a whole.
An area the Rams could have some success today is on the ground, as the Packers own the third-worst rush defense by our numbers. Given the passing-game personnel the Rams are rolling with, we'll likely see a steady dose of Cam Akers and Kyren Williams unless the Rams fall into a big hole.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, Green Bay is a 7.5-point favorite, and the total is 39.5 points.
While our model has the Packers winning 70.0% of the time, we favor LA on the spread. We project the final score to be a 23.3-17.2 win for the Pack, and we have the Rams covering 58.2% of the time. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our numbers, and is our top standard bet of the night.
With that said, the money is decidedly on Green Bay's side of the spread. Just 53% of the tickets have the Packers covering, but 72% of the money is on Green Bay to win by at least eight.
We have a slight lean on the over, projecting it to win out 54.3% of the time.
Comparing our player projections to the player prop lines, Aaron Jones' rushing yards stick out.
Jones' rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110 on each side) on FanDuel Sportsbook. We project him to tally 69.2 rushing yards. Jones exited early in the Packers' last game due to injury but was able to practice in a limited fashion all week, indicating he should be ready to roll. With Aaron Donald out and a great shot at a positive game script, Jones could feast in this one.
You can also look to the under on Robert Tonyan's receptions and receiving yards props, which are set at 2.5 (-106 on the under) and 21.5 (-118).
The Rams have been tough on tight ends, limiting the position to the third-fewest catches, third-fewest targets and eighth-fewest yards. Tonyan hasn't topped 20 yards in any of his last four games, and he's been held to two or fewer catches in three of those outings, including a pair of one-grab games. Green Bay is also expected to get Romeo Doubs back today, which adds more pass-catching competition to the mix.