Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 13-1 | 10.48 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.34 |
| Bills | 11-3 | 9.01 | 2 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.14 |
| Bengals | 10-4 | 8.36 | 3 | 2 | 100.0% | 1.95 |
| 49ers | 10-4 | 8.16 | 4 | 2 | 100.0% | 2.57 |
| Chiefs | 11-3 | 8.01 | 5 | -1 | 100.0% | 2.59 |
| Cowboys | 10-4 | 7.96 | 6 | -3 | 100.0% | 1.97 |
| Jets | 7-7 | 2.75 | 7 | 0 | 23.2% | 1.80 |
| Dolphins | 8-6 | 2.28 | 8 | 2 | 70.8% | 1.63 |
| Patriots | 7-7 | 1.70 | 9 | 0 | 14.0% | 1.08 |
| Ravens | 9-5 | 1.63 | 10 | -2 | 98.2% | 1.63 |
| Vikings | 11-3 | 1.28 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.80 |
| Buccaneers | 6-8 | 0.79 | 12 | 0 | 85.3% | 2.05 |
| Packers | 6-8 | -0.33 | 13 | 3 | 8.4% | 1.42 |
| Jaguars | 6-8 | -0.39 | 14 | 3 | 40.5% | 1.75 |
| Commanders | 7-6-1 | -0.46 | 15 | -2 | 24.8% | 1.01 |
| Steelers | 6-8 | -0.49 | 16 | -2 | 0.3% | 1.61 |
| Browns | 6-8 | -0.83 | 17 | 1 | 0.6% | 1.52 |
| Lions | 7-7 | -0.86 | 18 | -3 | 45.9% | 1.70 |
| Broncos | 4-10 | -1.38 | 19 | 3 | 0.0% | 1.30 |
| Chargers | 8-6 | -1.62 | 20 | -1 | 90.8% | 1.77 |
| Giants | 8-5-1 | -1.98 | 21 | 0 | 90.9% | 1.19 |
| Titans | 7-7 | -2.18 | 22 | -2 | 60.6% | 1.44 |
| Saints | 5-9 | -3.37 | 23 | 0 | 1.7% | 1.08 |
| Seahawks | 7-7 | -4.29 | 24 | 0 | 29.9% | 1.00 |
| Raiders | 6-8 | -4.36 | 25 | 3 | 1.0% | 0.63 |
| Bears | 3-11 | -4.60 | 26 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.80 |
| Cardinals | 4-10 | -5.17 | 27 | -2 | 0.0% | 0.93 |
| Panthers | 5-9 | -5.24 | 28 | -1 | 10.6% | 1.07 |
| Rams | 4-10 | -5.45 | 29 | -3 | 0.0% | 1.17 |
| Falcons | 5-9 | -5.68 | 30 | 0 | 2.6% | 1.09 |
| Colts | 4-9-1 | -7.95 | 31 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.25 |
| Texans | 1-12-1 | -11.00 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.74 |
Despite 7-7 records, both the New York Jets and the New England Patriots are top-10 teams in numberFire's power rankings. Despite being top-10 teams in numberFire's power rankings, the Jets (23.2%) and Patriots (14.0%) have sub-25.0% playoff chances.
The Jets' Week 15 loss to the Detroit Lions dropped their playoff odds by 22.6 percentage points. They now have three straight losses by a combined 16 total points. The remaining games on their schedule are Thursday night at home against the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars (14th in nERD) before two road games to close out the year versus the Seattle Seahawks (24th) and the Miami Dolphins (8th).
The Patriots' catastrophic last-second loss to the Las Vegas Raiders bumped down their playoff odds by 19.2 points. They've lost three of their past four games and now play three top-eight teams the rest of the way: the Cincinnati Bengals (3rd), the Dolphins (8th), and the Buffalo Bills (2nd).
Let's go back to the Jaguars. They scored an impressive win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, a victory that now has their playoff odds up to 40.5% (a 21.8-point increase). A loss by the Tennessee Titans is making the AFC South a tight race between those two teams. It's a 60/40 split to win the division with the odds favoring Tennessee.
Just like in the AFC East, we have some interesting news in the NFC East's bottom half. The New York Giants' win over the Washington Commanders proved massive. Their playoff odds spiked by 54.4 points to 90.9%, and the Commanders' odds now sit at just 24.8% after a 36.1-point decrease. New York squares up with the Minnesota Vikings (11th), the Indianapolis Colts (31st), and the Philadelphia Eagles (1st) the rest of the way. With a win this week and some help, Big Blue can clinch a playoff berth.
