NFL

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 15

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Patrick
Mahomes
$9,100 24.6 2.69 19.2 30.1 47.1% 1.83
Jalen
Hurts
$9,000 24.4 2.68 18.1 31.1 47.2% 1.54
Joe
Burrow
$8,000 20.3 2.55 14.7 25.8 28.5% 1.10
Justin
Herbert
$8,300 20.2 2.37 14.1 24.5 22.9% 0.66
Justin
Fields
$7,900 18.8 2.35 13.4 24.2 21.7% 0.76
Dak
Prescott
$7,500 18.7 2.57 14.3 24.0 21.4% 1.16
Trevor
Lawrence
$7,400 16.9 2.23 11.9 21.3 13.3% 0.54
Tom
Brady
$6,800 16.2 2.32 11.1 20.9 9.6% 0.72
Andy
Dalton
$6,700 15.9 2.35 10.8 20.7 9.4% 0.75
Mac
Jones
$6,700 15.8 2.32 10.4 20.5 9.1% 0.71
Derek
Carr
$7,000 15.7 2.21 10.6 20.6 10.0% 0.56
Zach
Wilson
$6,400 15.4 2.39 10.4 20.1 8.6% 0.78
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,900 14.8 2.21 10.4 20.0 7.8% 0.51
Jared
Goff
$7,300 14.8 2.02 9.6 19.3 5.7% 0.30
Brett
Rypien
$6,400 13.7 2.12 8.5 18.4 7.9% 0.50
Mitchell
Trubisky
$6,500 13.5 2.09 9.1 18.6 4.4% 0.44
Desmond
Ridder
$6,500 13.4 2.07 8.9 18.1 6.3% 0.42
Colt
McCoy
$6,100 13.1 2.17 8.7 17.6 4.2% 0.50
Sam
Darnold
$6,600 12.7 1.98 7.9 17.7 3.9% 0.28
Davis
Mills
$6,300 11.9 1.95 7.4 16.2 1.7% 0.25
Jeff
Driskel
$6,300 3.8 0.64 0.0 7.7 0.1% 0.01

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Derrick
Henry
$8,900 18.7 2.12 13.5 24.4 43.5% 2.79
Josh
Jacobs
$9,200 18.5 2.05 13.5 24.6 43.8% 2.41
Austin
Ekeler
$8,700 16.4 1.89 11.2 22.0 33.3% 1.52
Rhamondre
Stevenson
$8,500 16.0 1.83 10.7 20.3 26.6% 1.29
Alvin
Kamara
$7,600 16.0 2.17 11.1 21.5 31.8% 2.42
James
Conner
$7,200 14.6 2.00 9.4 19.3 22.7% 1.69
Zonovan
Knight
$7,200 13.5 1.95 8.4 19.0 19.9% 1.38
Latavius
Murray
$6,500 13.5 2.09 8.9 18.6 19.8% 2.06
Travis
Etienne
$7,000 13.4 1.88 8.6 18.4 19.1% 1.44
David
Montgomery
$6,800 13.3 1.99 8.8 18.1 18.0% 1.70
Joe
Mixon
$8,100 13.1 1.65 8.5 18.1 16.8% 0.76
Miles
Sanders
$7,800 12.6 1.58 7.3 17.3 15.2% 0.68
Isiah
Pacheco
$7,600 12.4 1.62 7.7 17.6 16.3% 0.80
Rachaad
White
$6,900 12.1 1.76 7.6 16.6 12.8% 1.02
Tony
Pollard
$8,200 12.1 1.49 7.6 17.4 15.3% 0.51
Najee
Harris
$6,600 11.5 1.77 6.8 16.8 13.0% 1.03
Ezekiel
Elliott
$7,500 10.7 1.37 5.6 15.2 8.9% 0.39
Cordarrelle
Patterson
$6,300 10.6 1.62 5.8 14.7 7.3% 0.79
Jamaal
Williams
$6,900 10.1 1.55 6.1 14.8 7.2% 0.55
D'Onta
Foreman
$6,400 10.0 1.62 5.6 14.9 6.8% 0.75
Jerick
McKinnon
$6,200 9.7 1.49 5.1 13.9 6.1% 0.62
D'Andre
Swift
$6,600 9.6 1.48 5.6 13.6 5.5% 0.49
Leonard
Fournette
$6,600 9.1 1.35 4.9 13.3 3.7% 0.37
Chuba
Hubbard
$6,100 8.3 1.39 4.0 12.5 4.1% 0.43
Rex
Burkhead
$4,800 7.6 1.51 3.9 11.5 1.3% 0.71
Dare
Ogunbowale
$5,000 7.5 1.42 3.1 11.1 1.5% 0.54
Samaje
Perine
$5,800 7.1 1.22 3.3 10.8 1.3% 0.27
Michael
Carter
$5,900 6.9 1.09 3.0 10.4 0.9% 0.19
Tyler
Allgeier
$5,800 6.8 1.20 2.8 11.0 1.3% 0.27
Marlon
Mack
$5,200 6.6 1.30 3.0 10.4 0.8% 0.40
Jaylen
Warren
$5,100 5.2 1.04 1.8 8.9 0.5% 0.23
Joshua
Kelley
$6,000 4.4 0.76 1.0 7.9 0.3% 0.06
Kevin
Harris
$4,700 4.2 0.89 0.7 8.0 0.3% 0.21

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Ja'Marr
Chase
$9,000 15.6 1.68 9.2 20.6 39.0% 0.80
Davante
Adams
$8,500 15.3 1.77 9.8 20.5 38.8% 1.07
CeeDee
Lamb
$8,100 14.5 1.77 9.6 19.7 34.5% 1.16
A.J.
Brown
$8,200 14.1 1.68 8.6 19.5 32.4% 0.87
Amon-Ra
St. Brown
$8,400 13.4 1.65 9.3 18.1 29.2% 0.68
Christian
Kirk
$7,100 12.4 1.81 8.5 17.3 24.5% 1.20
Keenan
Allen
$8,000 12.4 1.53 7.9 17.2 23.4% 0.62
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,400 12.3 1.51 8.1 17.5 25.0% 0.50
DeVonta
Smith
$7,200 11.9 1.63 7.5 16.8 21.3% 0.82
Tee
Higgins
$7,500 11.5 1.54 6.8 16.3 20.3% 0.60
Chris
Olave
$7,100 11.4 1.63 5.7 17.3 23.9% 0.79
Chris
Godwin
$7,000 11.0 1.55 6.4 14.8 13.0% 0.55
Garrett
Wilson
$7,800 11.0 1.38 6.3 15.8 17.0% 0.38
Mike
Williams
$7,200 10.9 1.53 5.7 16.1 18.9% 0.62
Jerry
Jeudy
$7,400 10.8 1.49 5.8 15.6 17.3% 0.52
JuJu
Smith-Schuster
$7,300 10.4 1.44 6.4 14.3 10.6% 0.37
Zay
Jones
$6,300 10.4 1.69 5.9 15.3 15.6% 0.85
Mike
Evans
$6,900 10.1 1.49 5.3 15.3 15.9% 0.59
Chris
Moore
$6,000 9.8 1.66 6.2 13.8 9.0% 0.85
Marquise
Brown
$6,800 9.2 1.39 5.1 13.7 9.2% 0.37
Diontae
Johnson
$6,600 9.0 1.42 5.1 13.3 9.2% 0.42
D.J.
Moore
$6,600 9.0 1.41 4.7 13.3 9.6% 0.42
Drake
London
$6,300 8.8 1.44 4.5 13.1 7.8% 0.46
Michael
Gallup
$5,700 8.6 1.44 3.9 12.7 8.4% 0.58
Jakobi
Meyers
$6,400 8.2 1.25 4.3 11.7 3.5% 0.23
Elijah
Moore
$5,600 8.2 1.44 3.3 12.3 8.5% 0.55
Tyler
Boyd
$6,400 7.7 1.21 4.4 11.2 2.5% 0.18
Robert
Woods
$5,600 7.6 1.33 4.0 10.9 3.4% 0.38
Nelson
Agholor
$5,400 7.5 1.41 3.9 11.3 2.8% 0.45
Marquez
Valdes-Scantling
$5,600 7.2 1.30 2.7 11.8 5.9% 0.43
Nick
Westbrook-Ikhine
$5,400 6.9 1.29 3.5 10.7 2.9% 0.35
George
Pickens
$6,100 6.9 1.07 1.9 10.7 6.4% 0.24
D.J.
Chark
$6,100 6.8 1.16 2.8 10.9 4.1% 0.25
Jarvis
Landry
$5,500 6.6 1.20 3.2 9.8 2.1% 0.26
Josh
Palmer
$6,500 6.6 1.00 3.2 10.0 1.3% 0.08
Julio
Jones
$5,400 6.4 1.20 2.6 10.1 1.9% 0.29
Quez
Watkins
$5,200 6.3 1.20 2.5 9.6 1.5% 0.28
Terrace
Marshall Jr.
$5,300 6.3 1.20 2.8 9.8 2.0% 0.25
Amari
Rodgers
$5,100 6.1 1.21 2.8 9.6 0.6% 0.26
Mack
Hollins
$5,700 6.1 1.06 2.2 9.9 2.2% 0.21
Olamide
Zaccheaus
$5,400 5.8 1.02 2.1 9.5 1.0% 0.18
Josh
Reynolds
$5,700 5.8 0.99 2.0 9.2 1.6% 0.14
Phillip
Dorsett
$5,300 5.6 1.09 1.9 9.7 1.5% 0.24
Hunter
Renfrow
$5,400 5.5 1.00 2.7 8.5 0.6% 0.14
Marvin
Jones
$5,300 5.5 1.09 2.1 9.0 1.1% 0.21
Tyquan
Thornton
$5,200 5.3 1.04 1.6 8.9 0.9% 0.16
Kadarius
Toney
$6,000 5.3 0.92 2.2 8.4 0.4% 0.07
Equanimeous
St. Brown
$5,200 5.1 0.89 0.7 8.9 1.1% 0.22
Denzel
Mims
$5,100 4.9 1.02 1.2 9.1 0.9% 0.21
Noah
Brown
$5,300 4.9 0.94 1.8 8.0 0.8% 0.11
Kendrick
Bourne
$5,000 4.5 0.88 1.6 7.4 0.2% 0.10
Dante
Pettis
$5,000 4.5 0.91 1.1 7.8 0.5% 0.15
Laviska
Shenault
$5,200 4.3 0.87 1.8 7.1 0.0% 0.03
Byron
Pringle
$5,000 4.1 0.82 0.6 7.5 0.2% 0.10
Shi
Smith
$5,000 4.0 0.77 0.6 7.0 0.2% 0.08

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Travis
Kelce
$8,000 15.8 1.99 11.0 20.5 54.9% 1.81
Dalton
Schultz
$6,500 9.3 1.42 5.3 13.1 16.6% 0.41
Greg
Dulcich
$5,600 8.7 1.52 4.4 13.3 17.6% 0.67
Cole
Kmet
$5,300 8.0 1.50 4.2 12.1 13.3% 0.63
Pat
Freiermuth
$5,800 7.9 1.38 4.8 11.5 10.4% 0.41
Chigoziem
Okonkwo
$5,100 7.5 1.43 3.3 11.0 7.7% 0.51
Evan
Engram
$5,500 6.9 1.26 3.2 10.3 5.6% 0.28
Taysom
Hill
$6,200 6.9 1.02 2.1 11.0 11.4% 0.26
Gerald
Everett
$5,600 6.6 1.18 2.6 10.5 8.3% 0.30
Tyler
Conklin
$5,000 6.2 1.24 2.6 9.7 4.2% 0.32
Hunter
Henry
$5,200 6.0 1.10 1.8 9.7 5.2% 0.25
Darren
Waller
$5,100 5.8 1.13 1.2 10.4 7.0% 0.35
Austin
Hooper
$5,000 5.4 1.06 2.1 8.5 2.0% 0.20
Juwan
Johnson
$5,200 5.0 0.96 1.4 9.4 5.0% 0.24
Jordan
Akins
$4,700 4.8 0.98 1.5 8.0 1.1% 0.18
Cade
Otton
$4,600 4.2 0.95 0.8 7.6 2.2% 0.19
Mitchell
Wilcox
$4,400 3.8 0.92 0.1 7.6 1.6% 0.20
Jonnu
Smith
$4,600 3.5 0.77 0.8 6.6 0.8% 0.09
Noah
Gray
$4,600 3.4 0.75 0.2 6.6 0.4% 0.09
Grant
Calcaterra
$4,500 3.4 0.81 0.6 6.4 0.7% 0.11