NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 15
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes |
$9,100 | 24.6 | 2.69 | 19.2 | 30.1 | 47.1% | 1.83 |
Jalen Hurts |
$9,000 | 24.4 | 2.68 | 18.1 | 31.1 | 47.2% | 1.54 |
Joe Burrow |
$8,000 | 20.3 | 2.55 | 14.7 | 25.8 | 28.5% | 1.10 |
Justin Herbert |
$8,300 | 20.2 | 2.37 | 14.1 | 24.5 | 22.9% | 0.66 |
Justin Fields |
$7,900 | 18.8 | 2.35 | 13.4 | 24.2 | 21.7% | 0.76 |
Dak Prescott |
$7,500 | 18.7 | 2.57 | 14.3 | 24.0 | 21.4% | 1.16 |
Trevor Lawrence |
$7,400 | 16.9 | 2.23 | 11.9 | 21.3 | 13.3% | 0.54 |
Tom Brady |
$6,800 | 16.2 | 2.32 | 11.1 | 20.9 | 9.6% | 0.72 |
Andy Dalton |
$6,700 | 15.9 | 2.35 | 10.8 | 20.7 | 9.4% | 0.75 |
Mac Jones |
$6,700 | 15.8 | 2.32 | 10.4 | 20.5 | 9.1% | 0.71 |
Derek Carr |
$7,000 | 15.7 | 2.21 | 10.6 | 20.6 | 10.0% | 0.56 |
Zach Wilson |
$6,400 | 15.4 | 2.39 | 10.4 | 20.1 | 8.6% | 0.78 |
Ryan Tannehill |
$6,900 | 14.8 | 2.21 | 10.4 | 20.0 | 7.8% | 0.51 |
Jared Goff |
$7,300 | 14.8 | 2.02 | 9.6 | 19.3 | 5.7% | 0.30 |
Brett Rypien |
$6,400 | 13.7 | 2.12 | 8.5 | 18.4 | 7.9% | 0.50 |
Mitchell Trubisky |
$6,500 | 13.5 | 2.09 | 9.1 | 18.6 | 4.4% | 0.44 |
Desmond Ridder |
$6,500 | 13.4 | 2.07 | 8.9 | 18.1 | 6.3% | 0.42 |
Colt McCoy |
$6,100 | 13.1 | 2.17 | 8.7 | 17.6 | 4.2% | 0.50 |
Sam Darnold |
$6,600 | 12.7 | 1.98 | 7.9 | 17.7 | 3.9% | 0.28 |
Davis Mills |
$6,300 | 11.9 | 1.95 | 7.4 | 16.2 | 1.7% | 0.25 |
Jeff Driskel |
$6,300 | 3.8 | 0.64 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.1% | 0.01 |
Running Back
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry |
$8,900 | 18.7 | 2.12 | 13.5 | 24.4 | 43.5% | 2.79 |
Josh Jacobs |
$9,200 | 18.5 | 2.05 | 13.5 | 24.6 | 43.8% | 2.41 |
Austin Ekeler |
$8,700 | 16.4 | 1.89 | 11.2 | 22.0 | 33.3% | 1.52 |
Rhamondre Stevenson |
$8,500 | 16.0 | 1.83 | 10.7 | 20.3 | 26.6% | 1.29 |
Alvin Kamara |
$7,600 | 16.0 | 2.17 | 11.1 | 21.5 | 31.8% | 2.42 |
James Conner |
$7,200 | 14.6 | 2.00 | 9.4 | 19.3 | 22.7% | 1.69 |
Zonovan Knight |
$7,200 | 13.5 | 1.95 | 8.4 | 19.0 | 19.9% | 1.38 |
Latavius Murray |
$6,500 | 13.5 | 2.09 | 8.9 | 18.6 | 19.8% | 2.06 |
Travis Etienne |
$7,000 | 13.4 | 1.88 | 8.6 | 18.4 | 19.1% | 1.44 |
David Montgomery |
$6,800 | 13.3 | 1.99 | 8.8 | 18.1 | 18.0% | 1.70 |
Joe Mixon |
$8,100 | 13.1 | 1.65 | 8.5 | 18.1 | 16.8% | 0.76 |
Miles Sanders |
$7,800 | 12.6 | 1.58 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 15.2% | 0.68 |
Isiah Pacheco |
$7,600 | 12.4 | 1.62 | 7.7 | 17.6 | 16.3% | 0.80 |
Rachaad White |
$6,900 | 12.1 | 1.76 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 12.8% | 1.02 |
Tony Pollard |
$8,200 | 12.1 | 1.49 | 7.6 | 17.4 | 15.3% | 0.51 |
Najee Harris |
$6,600 | 11.5 | 1.77 | 6.8 | 16.8 | 13.0% | 1.03 |
Ezekiel Elliott |
$7,500 | 10.7 | 1.37 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 8.9% | 0.39 |
Cordarrelle Patterson |
$6,300 | 10.6 | 1.62 | 5.8 | 14.7 | 7.3% | 0.79 |
Jamaal Williams |
$6,900 | 10.1 | 1.55 | 6.1 | 14.8 | 7.2% | 0.55 |
D'Onta Foreman |
$6,400 | 10.0 | 1.62 | 5.6 | 14.9 | 6.8% | 0.75 |
Jerick McKinnon |
$6,200 | 9.7 | 1.49 | 5.1 | 13.9 | 6.1% | 0.62 |
D'Andre Swift |
$6,600 | 9.6 | 1.48 | 5.6 | 13.6 | 5.5% | 0.49 |
Leonard Fournette |
$6,600 | 9.1 | 1.35 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 3.7% | 0.37 |
Chuba Hubbard |
$6,100 | 8.3 | 1.39 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 4.1% | 0.43 |
Rex Burkhead |
$4,800 | 7.6 | 1.51 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 1.3% | 0.71 |
Dare Ogunbowale |
$5,000 | 7.5 | 1.42 | 3.1 | 11.1 | 1.5% | 0.54 |
Samaje Perine |
$5,800 | 7.1 | 1.22 | 3.3 | 10.8 | 1.3% | 0.27 |
Michael Carter |
$5,900 | 6.9 | 1.09 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 0.9% | 0.19 |
Tyler Allgeier |
$5,800 | 6.8 | 1.20 | 2.8 | 11.0 | 1.3% | 0.27 |
Marlon Mack |
$5,200 | 6.6 | 1.30 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 0.8% | 0.40 |
Jaylen Warren |
$5,100 | 5.2 | 1.04 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 0.5% | 0.23 |
Joshua Kelley |
$6,000 | 4.4 | 0.76 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 0.3% | 0.06 |
Kevin Harris |
$4,700 | 4.2 | 0.89 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 0.3% | 0.21 |
Wide Receiver
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ja'Marr Chase |
$9,000 | 15.6 | 1.68 | 9.2 | 20.6 | 39.0% | 0.80 |
Davante Adams |
$8,500 | 15.3 | 1.77 | 9.8 | 20.5 | 38.8% | 1.07 |
CeeDee Lamb |
$8,100 | 14.5 | 1.77 | 9.6 | 19.7 | 34.5% | 1.16 |
A.J. Brown |
$8,200 | 14.1 | 1.68 | 8.6 | 19.5 | 32.4% | 0.87 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown |
$8,400 | 13.4 | 1.65 | 9.3 | 18.1 | 29.2% | 0.68 |
Christian Kirk |
$7,100 | 12.4 | 1.81 | 8.5 | 17.3 | 24.5% | 1.20 |
Keenan Allen |
$8,000 | 12.4 | 1.53 | 7.9 | 17.2 | 23.4% | 0.62 |
DeAndre Hopkins |
$8,400 | 12.3 | 1.51 | 8.1 | 17.5 | 25.0% | 0.50 |
DeVonta Smith |
$7,200 | 11.9 | 1.63 | 7.5 | 16.8 | 21.3% | 0.82 |
Tee Higgins |
$7,500 | 11.5 | 1.54 | 6.8 | 16.3 | 20.3% | 0.60 |
Chris Olave |
$7,100 | 11.4 | 1.63 | 5.7 | 17.3 | 23.9% | 0.79 |
Chris Godwin |
$7,000 | 11.0 | 1.55 | 6.4 | 14.8 | 13.0% | 0.55 |
Garrett Wilson |
$7,800 | 11.0 | 1.38 | 6.3 | 15.8 | 17.0% | 0.38 |
Mike Williams |
$7,200 | 10.9 | 1.53 | 5.7 | 16.1 | 18.9% | 0.62 |
Jerry Jeudy |
$7,400 | 10.8 | 1.49 | 5.8 | 15.6 | 17.3% | 0.52 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster |
$7,300 | 10.4 | 1.44 | 6.4 | 14.3 | 10.6% | 0.37 |
Zay Jones |
$6,300 | 10.4 | 1.69 | 5.9 | 15.3 | 15.6% | 0.85 |
Mike Evans |
$6,900 | 10.1 | 1.49 | 5.3 | 15.3 | 15.9% | 0.59 |
Chris Moore |
$6,000 | 9.8 | 1.66 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 9.0% | 0.85 |
Marquise Brown |
$6,800 | 9.2 | 1.39 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 9.2% | 0.37 |
Diontae Johnson |
$6,600 | 9.0 | 1.42 | 5.1 | 13.3 | 9.2% | 0.42 |
D.J. Moore |
$6,600 | 9.0 | 1.41 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 9.6% | 0.42 |
Drake London |
$6,300 | 8.8 | 1.44 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 7.8% | 0.46 |
Michael Gallup |
$5,700 | 8.6 | 1.44 | 3.9 | 12.7 | 8.4% | 0.58 |
Jakobi Meyers |
$6,400 | 8.2 | 1.25 | 4.3 | 11.7 | 3.5% | 0.23 |
Elijah Moore |
$5,600 | 8.2 | 1.44 | 3.3 | 12.3 | 8.5% | 0.55 |
Tyler Boyd |
$6,400 | 7.7 | 1.21 | 4.4 | 11.2 | 2.5% | 0.18 |
Robert Woods |
$5,600 | 7.6 | 1.33 | 4.0 | 10.9 | 3.4% | 0.38 |
Nelson Agholor |
$5,400 | 7.5 | 1.41 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 2.8% | 0.45 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
$5,600 | 7.2 | 1.30 | 2.7 | 11.8 | 5.9% | 0.43 |
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine |
$5,400 | 6.9 | 1.29 | 3.5 | 10.7 | 2.9% | 0.35 |
George Pickens |
$6,100 | 6.9 | 1.07 | 1.9 | 10.7 | 6.4% | 0.24 |
D.J. Chark |
$6,100 | 6.8 | 1.16 | 2.8 | 10.9 | 4.1% | 0.25 |
Jarvis Landry |
$5,500 | 6.6 | 1.20 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 2.1% | 0.26 |
Josh Palmer |
$6,500 | 6.6 | 1.00 | 3.2 | 10.0 | 1.3% | 0.08 |
Julio Jones |
$5,400 | 6.4 | 1.20 | 2.6 | 10.1 | 1.9% | 0.29 |
Quez Watkins |
$5,200 | 6.3 | 1.20 | 2.5 | 9.6 | 1.5% | 0.28 |
Terrace Marshall Jr. |
$5,300 | 6.3 | 1.20 | 2.8 | 9.8 | 2.0% | 0.25 |
Amari Rodgers |
$5,100 | 6.1 | 1.21 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 0.6% | 0.26 |
Mack Hollins |
$5,700 | 6.1 | 1.06 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 2.2% | 0.21 |
Olamide Zaccheaus |
$5,400 | 5.8 | 1.02 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 1.0% | 0.18 |
Josh Reynolds |
$5,700 | 5.8 | 0.99 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 1.6% | 0.14 |
Phillip Dorsett |
$5,300 | 5.6 | 1.09 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 1.5% | 0.24 |
Hunter Renfrow |
$5,400 | 5.5 | 1.00 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 0.6% | 0.14 |
Marvin Jones |
$5,300 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 1.1% | 0.21 |
Tyquan Thornton |
$5,200 | 5.3 | 1.04 | 1.6 | 8.9 | 0.9% | 0.16 |
Kadarius Toney |
$6,000 | 5.3 | 0.92 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 0.4% | 0.07 |
Equanimeous St. Brown |
$5,200 | 5.1 | 0.89 | 0.7 | 8.9 | 1.1% | 0.22 |
Denzel Mims |
$5,100 | 4.9 | 1.02 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 0.9% | 0.21 |
Noah Brown |
$5,300 | 4.9 | 0.94 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 0.8% | 0.11 |
Kendrick Bourne |
$5,000 | 4.5 | 0.88 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 0.2% | 0.10 |
Dante Pettis |
$5,000 | 4.5 | 0.91 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 0.5% | 0.15 |
Laviska Shenault |
$5,200 | 4.3 | 0.87 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.03 |
Byron Pringle |
$5,000 | 4.1 | 0.82 | 0.6 | 7.5 | 0.2% | 0.10 |
Shi Smith |
$5,000 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 0.2% | 0.08 |
Tight End
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Travis Kelce |
$8,000 | 15.8 | 1.99 | 11.0 | 20.5 | 54.9% | 1.81 |
Dalton Schultz |
$6,500 | 9.3 | 1.42 | 5.3 | 13.1 | 16.6% | 0.41 |
Greg Dulcich |
$5,600 | 8.7 | 1.52 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 17.6% | 0.67 |
Cole Kmet |
$5,300 | 8.0 | 1.50 | 4.2 | 12.1 | 13.3% | 0.63 |
Pat Freiermuth |
$5,800 | 7.9 | 1.38 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 10.4% | 0.41 |
Chigoziem Okonkwo |
$5,100 | 7.5 | 1.43 | 3.3 | 11.0 | 7.7% | 0.51 |
Evan Engram |
$5,500 | 6.9 | 1.26 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 5.6% | 0.28 |
Taysom Hill |
$6,200 | 6.9 | 1.02 | 2.1 | 11.0 | 11.4% | 0.26 |
Gerald Everett |
$5,600 | 6.6 | 1.18 | 2.6 | 10.5 | 8.3% | 0.30 |
Tyler Conklin |
$5,000 | 6.2 | 1.24 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 4.2% | 0.32 |
Hunter Henry |
$5,200 | 6.0 | 1.10 | 1.8 | 9.7 | 5.2% | 0.25 |
Darren Waller |
$5,100 | 5.8 | 1.13 | 1.2 | 10.4 | 7.0% | 0.35 |
Austin Hooper |
$5,000 | 5.4 | 1.06 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 2.0% | 0.20 |
Juwan Johnson |
$5,200 | 5.0 | 0.96 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 5.0% | 0.24 |
Jordan Akins |
$4,700 | 4.8 | 0.98 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 1.1% | 0.18 |
Cade Otton |
$4,600 | 4.2 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 2.2% | 0.19 |
Mitchell Wilcox |
$4,400 | 3.8 | 0.92 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 1.6% | 0.20 |
Jonnu Smith |
$4,600 | 3.5 | 0.77 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 0.8% | 0.09 |
Noah Gray |
$4,600 | 3.4 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 0.4% | 0.09 |
Grant Calcaterra |
$4,500 | 3.4 | 0.81 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 0.7% | 0.11 |