3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15: Saturday Slate
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
We have a three-game NFL slate on Saturday, so let's jump into some player props!
The Indianapolis Colts are 3.5-point road underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, where the game total is set at 47.5 points. The Vikings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and we want to target players for some upside against them.
That starts with Jonathan Taylor over 17.5 receiving yards. The Colts have a 22.0 implied team total, so they should be able to put some points on the board, and that means racking up plenty of yards along the way.
Taylor comes in with a 12.3% target share and 9.7% red zone target share while playing on 78.6% of the snaps and running a route on 54.9% of drop backs.
The matchup for Taylor is an elite one because the Vikings are allowing the fifth-most (603) receiving yards and the seventh-most (77) receptions to running backs this season. The Vikings' defense has been torched all season by opposing passing games, and there's no reason to stop taking props against them now.
Taylor comes in projected for 22.77 receiving yards, which has him going over his prop this week.
J.K. Dobbins Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
That running back would be J.K. Dobbins after he returned last week from missing time due to a knee injury. He returned in a big way with 15 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, a level he may not exactly replicate this week, but he has a favorable matchup to get him close.
Last week, those 15 carries accounted for 45% of the Ravens' (33) non-quarterback rushing attempts. There were no concerns about giving him a big workload, as he played on 42.6% of the snaps and logged 40% of the red zone rushing attempts.
With Lamar Jackson ruled out yet again this week, it won't be a surprise to see the Ravens lean on the rushing game again. That won't be anything new for them because they come in with a 50.18% rush play percentage, which is the fourth-highest in the league.
The Browns have struggled against the run this season, allowing the seventh-most (1,480) rushing yards to running backs this season, along with the second-most (14) touchdowns.
All of this has Dobbins projected for 54.33 rushing yards, putting him over his yardage prop this week.
Mike Gesicki Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
For the night game, we turn to under 14.5 receiving yards for Mike Gesicki.
There's a lot going on when it comes to the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills this weekend. First and foremost, they are expecting an actual blizzard in Buffalo, which doesn't set things up for a high-scoring game.
Next, we have seen the Dolphins' passing offense take a clear step back in recent weeks, and that impacts the potential production of basically everyone except for Tyreek Hill.
When it comes to Gesicki specifically, he is carrying a low 8.8% target share on the season, which has somehow dropped to 4.2% over the last three weeks. He has a total of four targets, zero receptions, and zero yards over that stretch.
He's been pushed out of their offense to the point that he is only playing on 39.2% of the snaps in the last three games, which is down from 48.8% if we look at the entire season.
Finally, this isn't a great matchup for Gesicki. The Bills have allowed the ninth-fewest (542) receiving yards to tight ends this season. All of this points to under 14.5 receiving yards for Gesicki this week.