5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 14
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($7,100)
Jared Goff has massive home and road splits this year. Fortunately, Goff has been lights out at home. According to Pro Football Reference, Goff has averaged 269.6 passing yards per game, tossed 17 touchdowns, and thrown just 3 interceptions in seven games at home this year.
The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings this week, so Goff can add to his excellent home numbers in a good matchup. According to our team power rankings, the Vikings have the 10th-worst pass defense.
The game's pace should also be blistering. Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings are seventh in situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are eighth.
The betting info is also superb. According to our heat map, the Lions have the second-highest implied total (27.50 points), and the Vikings have the seventh-highest implied total (25.00) on FanDuel's main slate.
Finally, our projection algorithm supports using Goff on FanDuel rosters, projecting him for the fourth-highest value score -- the measure of points per $1,000 of FanDuel salary -- among quarterbacks. Goff is an exciting value pick.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills ($6,100)
James Cook isn't a safe pick by any stretch of the imagination. However, the outlook might be improving for the rookie running back. For the first time this year, Cook tied Devin Singletary for the team lead in snap share (44.44 percent) among running backs on the Buffalo Bills last week.
Cook also had encouraging rushing usage last week. When in a neutral game script, Cook carried the ball eight times for 50 yards versus five attempts for 21 yards by Singletary. Cook also helped salt the game away, toting the rock six times compared to eight for Singletary when the Bills led by at least eight points. It would elevate the rookie's floor and ceiling if Cook can maintain a nearly even split for rushing work with Singletary.
Yet, Cook's receiving usage has been the most eye-catching. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cook has run 27 routes since Week 11, but he's been targeted on a jaw-dropping 48.1 percent of them.
The matchup against the New York Jets is stellar for Cook's receiving potential this week. According to Football Outsiders, running backs have averaged the 10th-most receiving yards per game (40.6) against the Jets. In addition, running backs have averaged 5.25 receptions per game against Gang Green.
The Bills are tied for the fourth-highest implied total (26.50 points) and are 9.5-point favorites, creating a possible good game script for Buffalo's rushing attack.
Again, Cook isn't a safe pick. Nonetheless, his profile has enough positives to warrant consideration this week.
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,300)
There is a lot to like about Zay Jones this week. First, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a fast-paced and pass-first offense. The Jags are ninth in situation-neutral pace and have attempted 57 passes versus 45 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous four games.
Second, the Tennessee Titans are a pass-funnel defense. The Titans have the eighth-best rush defense and the ninth-worst pass defense by our metrics. As a result, teams have understandably attacked them through the air. Since Week 10, Tennessee's opponents have attempted 108 passes and rushed just 50 times with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
Thankfully, Trevor Lawrence wasn't seriously injured last week on a scary-looking play to end the first half. Lawrence finished the game and is considered day-to-day.
#Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said QB Trevor Lawrence has a foot injury (from that scary hit on Sunday) and he's day to day. His status for Sunday is up in the air.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 7, 2022
If Lawrence is ruled out this week, gamers shouldn't use Jones. The veteran wideout has been a popular target for the second-year quarterback, though.
Since Week 10 (three games), Jones has tied for Jacksonville's team lead in routes (119), ranked second in receiving yards (229), and led the club in targets (29) and receptions (21).
Jones didn't score any touchdowns during that three-game stretch, but he wasn't ignored in scoring territory. Lawrence attempted nine passes inside the 10-yard line in Jacksonville's past three games and directed one to Jones, resulting in a reception for seven yards.
Jones's high-volume usage is DFS-friendly, and a little more good fortune in scoring territory can kick him up a notch.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos ($5,400)
Greg Dulcich got off to a fast start after he was activated from the injured reserve in Week 6. Sadly, he had a three-game skid after the Denver Broncos' bye in Week 9. The rookie tight end got back on track last week, though.
Dulcich had six receptions for 85 yards on eight targets last week. He was also tied for the team lead in routes (21). Dulcich's usage was dreamy. Further, he has an intriguing athletic profile.
Obviously, the Broncos have been the butt of many jokes for their offensive ineptitude. Regardless, the bar is low for a tight end providing FanDuel value. Dulcich is capable of clearing the low bar, and he projects for the second-highest value score among tight ends this week.
Steelers, DEF, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,800)
The Pittsburgh D/ST is a vastly different unit when T.J. Watt is healthy. The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed only 20 points per game in the five games Watt has suited up this year. Additionally, they've recorded 15 sacks and forced 12 turnovers in that five-game sample.
The Steelers should have an outstanding matchup this week because Lamar Jackson will presumably be out with a PCL injury.
Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained PCL during Sunday’s win over the Denver Broncos, per league sources. PCL injuries often sideline players 1-to-3 weeks and Ravens’ HC John Harbaugh already has said Jackson is “less likely” to play Sunday vs. the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/4ra4KDuUdQ
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 6, 2022
Instead, Baltimore's offense is likely to flounder. According to Pro Football Reference, Huntley has had a 2.2 percent interception rate and an 8.2 percent sack rate in his career. Huntley's career interception rate would be the 15th-highest mark, and his sack rate would be the 10th-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks this year. Pittsburgh's defense should have opportunities to pile up sacks and interceptions.
The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites at home, and Baltimore's implied total is a ghastly 17.00 points. As a result, we project the Steelers as the second-highest-scoring defense, and they have the highest value score among defenses on FanDuel's main slate.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.