3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 14
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Cam Akers Any Time Touchdown (+160)
Cam Akers Over 44.5 Rushing yards (-110)
Will this game be good? I have no idea, but it will certainly be interesting due to the injury situations on the Rams. As of now, the Rams don't know who will be their starting quarterback. John Wolford is dealing with a neck injury, and that could lead to the newly acquired Baker Mayfield getting the start.
Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Rams, it should put Cam Akers in a good spot tonight. A couple of things can be true: Wolford isn't good and isn't fully healthy, and Baker doesn't know the playbook. This should point the Rams in the direction of having a simple and straightforward offense, meaning more rushing chances for Akers.
On the season, the Rams have a 61.16% pass play percentage, which is the ninth-highest in the league. However, there has been a dramatic switch in recent weeks. In the last three weeks, the Rams have a 49.44% pass play percentage, which is 26th. They have completely shifted their offensive play-calling tendencies due to the lack of skill at the quarterback position.
This has led to Akers seeing 39 carries over the last three weeks, his highest total of any three-game stretch this season. That volume should come in handy against the Raiders' run defense, which is the league's 12th-worst, per our metrics.
All of this has Akers projected for 50.91 rushing yards, going over his prop total tonight. The Rams' commitment to the rushing game will also put him in a spot to see touches in the scoring areas against a mediocre defense.
Mac Hollins Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
With a 25.00 implied team total, the Raiders should be moving the ball on offense, presenting plenty of chances for their players to rack up stats.
While the Raiders' passing offense is dominated by the always-talented Davante Adams, a second consistent option in Mack Hollins has emerged in recent weeks. Since both Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are on injured reserve, Hollins has stepped up to fill that void on offense.
Over the last four weeks, Hollins has a 21.0% target share and 23.4% air yard share while playing on 97.3% of the snaps and running a route on 100.0% of drop backs. This has allowed Hollins to rack up four receptions or more in three of these last four weeks, a solid level of consistency.
The matchup against the Rams is a juicy one because they have allowed the 2nd-most receptions (175) and the 11th-most (1,986) yards to wide receivers this season. Tonight, he is projected for 4.41 receptions, going over his prop total.