3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
A.J. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+130)
Who doesn't love a good narrative?
That's what we have for A.J. Brown this week with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting his former team, the Tennessee Titans. We're looking at a solid game with an over/under of 44.5 points and the Eagles being favored by 4.5 points, which should put things in a good spot for some scoring.
As mentioned, this is Brown's former team who traded him in the offseason, so a narrative is always good, but there's more to it than just that.
The Titans have one of the worst secondaries in the entire league and to this point in the season have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (2,034) and the second-most touchdowns (14) to wide receivers. With the Eagles carrying a 24.50 implied team total, they should be putting up points this weekend, and doing it via the air is a great gameplan for them.
Brown has been elite for the Eagles with a 29.0% target share, 41.3% air yards share, 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT), and 34.2% red zone target share. All of those are the highest on the Eagles except the aDOT, which is the second-highest.
He does it all for them, and that has led to him having a 66.17 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the 13th-best in the league among wide receivers.
It's a soft matchup for an elite wide receiver, who happens to be going against his former team. I'm taking Brown to find the endzone at +130.
Trevor Lawrence Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
A great game environment should lead to an over for Trevor Lawrence.
To be specific, I'm taking over 33.5 passing attempts against the Detroit Lions. The game total is up at 51.5 points with just a 1.0-point spread separating the Lions and Jaguars. We should be in for a back-and-forth shootout.
This is great for a player's production since there should be a high number of plays run, and that can lend itself nicely to some overs.
When it comes to Lawrence, he is averaging 35 passing attempts per game this season, but that doesn't tell the entire story. If we look at his 11 games this season, Lawrence has two clear outliers where he had 22 and 23 passing attempts. Those are noticeably different when every other game has at least 30 passing attempts.
If we remove those two outliers from his game logs, Lawrence is averaging 37.7 passing attempts in the other nine games. This is more in line with what we've been seeing as of late, having posted 40 passing attempts in three of his last five games.
It also helps that the Lions' defense is horrible against the pass, allowing the sixth-most passing yards this season (2,859). Lawrence should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball due to the strong game environment -- and do so with ease because of the favorable matchup.
All of this has Lawrence projected for 35.67 passing attempts, hitting the over on his prop this week.
Garrett Wilson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
While the Vikings have a strong 9-2 record, their defense is one of the worst in the league. They have allowed a league-worst 2,173 receiving yards to wide receivers, putting all of their opponents in a great spot.
This week, that puts rookie, Garrett Wilson at the top of the list -- and over 62.5 receiving yards. He has made an immediate impact in the Jets' offense with a 23.0% target share and 24.4% air yards share. He's played on 70.6% of the snaps and run a route on 78.9% of drop backs.
Wilson has been the Jets' best receiver this season and has put that on full display as of late, posting at least 92 receiving yards in three of his last five games. The Jets are only 3.0-point underdogs in this matchup, but if they fall behind by more than that, the positive passing game script will only help Wilson and his yardage prop.