3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Josh Allen Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Tonight's game sees the Bills as slight 3.5-point favorites and a modest over/under of 43.5-points, which could set things up for a lower-scoring game. There's no time to waste, so let's hop right into the player props starting off with Josh Allen under 268.5 passing yards.
Allen is an awesome quarterback -- there's no denying that -- but this is a very tough matchup for him. Through 11 games, the Patriots have allowed the sixth-fewest (2,184) passing yards to quarterbacks, good for only 198.5 yards per game. They have an elite passing defense that has held opposing quarterbacks under this 268.5 mark in eight of those contests.
Historically, this is a matchup that has caused some issues for Allen; he is averaging 215.9 passing yards per game against the Patriots in seven career games.
Allen is also still dealing with an elbow injury, and whether or not it's a major issue is yet to be seen, but we have seen his passing production take a step back in recent games. Over his last five games, Allen has hit the over on this 268.5 mark just once.
Add all of this up, and it has me going with under 268.5 passing yards for Josh Allen tonight.
DeVante Parker Over 17.5 Longest Reception (-114)
For the Patriots' offense, DeVante Parker plays a very clear role -- a great downfield target.
When it comes to the Patriots' passing game, they are very balanced and spread the ball around a good amount. There are six players with target shares over 10% but also have no player higher than a 22.8% target share. It's great to have a balanced passing attack and spread the ball around to multiple players, but things are different when it comes to taking shots downfield.
Devante Parker is the clear number-one option for deep passes this season. He comes in with a team-high 16.1 average depth of target (aDOT). The next highest player on the team is Nelson Agholor with an 11.2 aDOT.
If we look back through Parker's game log this season, he has receptions of 25 yards or more in five of his nine games. In three of those games, he had long receptions of 40-plus yards. They love to target him downfield, and the matchup against the Bills is one that should allow that to happen.
The Bills' secondary is struggling a bit this season and has allowed the 11th most (1,789) receiving yards to wide receivers. We've seen those struggles on display this season where they have allowed opposing wide receivers to haul in long receptions of at least 21 yards in 10 of their 11 games.
It's a match made in heaven for Parker, and the clear option to go over 17.5 yards for his longest reception.
Devin Singletary Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Finally, let's turn to the under for rushing yards by Devin Singletary.
Not only is this a tough matchup for the Bills' passing game, but it's also one for their rushing attack. The Patriots' defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (842) to opposing running backs this season, putting Singletary in a tough spot.
While some may note that Singletary has posted strong production recently -- going over this 51.5 mark three times in his last five games -- we have to account for those matchups.
Singletary went over 51.5 yards against the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Green Bay Packers. All three of those teams are in the bottom half of the league for the most rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs.
The Patriots' defense is a different beast compared to those three teams, and Singletary shouldn't have the same success tonight as he did in other matchups.