3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 12
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Michael Pittman Any Time Touchdown (+195)
This game features a close 2.5-point spread in favor of the home Colts and a total sitting at a very modest 39.5 points. Let's take a look at three player props for this game, starting with Michael Pittman Jr. any time touchdown.
Pittman plays a massive role in the Colts' passing game with a 96.1% snap rate, 97.1% route rate on drop backs, 25.3% target share, and 28.8% air yards share, all of which are the highest on the team. Pittman also has a 14.7% red zone target share, which is the second-highest on the team.
Despite all of these elite numbers, Pittman hasn't found the end zone since Week 1! Pittman is due for some serious positive touchdown regression, and the matchup versus the Steelers can certainly help get that started.
This season, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most (2,025) receiving yards to wide receivers and the second-most (14) touchdowns. The Steelers' secondary has been one of the softest matchups for wide receivers this season, and we want to attack that with a high-usage player such as Pittman.
Diontae Johnson Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Next up, under 43.5 receiving yards for Diontae Johnson.
The matchup for Johnson is a tough one, combined with the fact his role within the offense has decreased in recent weeks. The Colts have been elite against the passing game this season, allowing 1,313 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, which is the fewest in the league.
If we take a look at Johnson's stats for the entire season, we see he is carrying a 24.6% target share, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Over the last two weeks, we've seen that target share plummet down to 15.6%. Even with Chase Claypool being traded to the Chicago Bears, Johnson has taken a step back in the Steelers' passing game.
They seem to be set on getting more players involved in the passing offense and now have four players -- including Johnson -- with a target share at 10.9% or higher. We see that very clearly due to Johnson hitting the under on this 43.5 mark in four of his last five games.
A very tough matchup and a decreased offensive role point to Johnson hitting the under tonight versus the Colts.
George Pickens Over 18.5 Longest Reception (-114)
Finally, let's take a look at George Pickens over 18.5 yards longest reception.
As noted above, the Colts have a strong secondary this season, but it doesn't mean they are exempt from giving up big plays. In the 11 games, they have allowed a long reception of over 19 yards to wide receivers seven times. In fact, the longest reception allowed average in those games is all the way up at 41.5 yards.
When it comes to Pickens this season, he has a 14.2 average depth of target (aDOT) and a 15.1% target share. However, it doesn't stop there. Just as we accounted for Claypool being traded to the Bears when it came to Johnson's production, we want to look at the difference for Pickens in the same splits.
Since the trade, Pickens has a 15.6% target share and a 15.3 aDOT. Pickens is being targeted ever so slightly more often and every so slightly further downfield. While these aren't massive differences, it's good to see the Steelers are trusting the rookie wide receiver a bit more.
Pickens has gone over this 18.5 mark in 6 of his 10 games this season, something he can add to tonight.