Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
We have a new number-one team, the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has reeled off five straight wins by 21, 3, 10, 3, and 16 points. Their losses this season have been by 3 points (to the 31st-ranked Indianapolis Colts on the road) and by 4 points (to the 2nd-ranked Buffalo Bills at home). They're not far off from an 11-0 record. Overall, the Chiefs now have a league-best 20.5% Super Bowl win probability. Only three other teams are in the double-digits: the Bills (17.3%), the Philadelphia Eagles (16.2%), and the San Francisco 49ers (10.1%).
The New York Jets keep raising their nERD. It's now 4.08, up 1.39 points from a week ago and 4.80 points from the start the season. The Jets' upcoming schedule will test them; four of their final six are on the road. They play the Minnesota Vikings (12th in nERD) and the Bills (2nd) on the road before a stretch of winnable games against the Detroit Lions (25th), Jacksonville Jaguars (16th), and the Seattle Seahawks (22nd). They'll close out the season in what could be a pivotal game against the Miami Dolphins (9th) in Miami.
A Thanksgiving loss for the New England Patriots was very costly for their playoff odds. Their odds fell from 46.4% to 27.1%, a dip of 19.3 points. No other team came close to that big of a downward shift this week. The Patriots are now a true outlier. They're 11th in nERD but are under 30% likely to make the playoffs. Only the Jets (44.9%) are also below 74.2% likely to make the playoffs among top-13 squads by nERD.
This one won't get much attention, but the Washington Commanders' playoff odds did jump 15.0 points to 52.6%. They have a schedule quirk upcoming during which they'll play the New York Giants (19th) on the road, have a bye, and then host them. In between those games for the Giants, they'll have to focus on the Eagles (4th). Despite a nERD score (-0.67) that puts them in the same tier as a lot of weaker teams (by record), the 7-5 start for Washington has them legitimately in the playoff mix.