FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Monday Night (49ers at Cardinals)
The San Francisco 49ers come into Monday's contest as 9.5-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City. The spread has continued to rise in the 49ers' favor with Colt McCoy ($14,000) expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals tonight.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
McCaffrey leads the way and ought to be the chalk MVP play. However, while the star running back's upside is abundantly clear -- he ran, received, and threw for three total touchdowns in his 49ers debut -- the return of Elijah Mitchell ($8,500) in Week 10 demonstrated that we might not see McCaffrey in a workhorse role moving forward.
With Mitchell back, McCaffrey still led the backfield in snap rate (64.3%), but Mitchell got a sizable share of the pie (35.7%). That would lead to a pretty close split in adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), with McCaffrey logging 26 to Mitchell's 22. Worse still, Mitchell out-carried McCaffrey in the red zone seven to four.
Coach Kyle Shanahan has indicated that the team plans to use the duo as a "one-two punch," so it's pretty safe to say that Mitchell isn't going anywhere.
All of this is to say that for as great as McCaffrey is, there's definitely an argument for looking elsewhere at MVP in tournaments if you expect his popularity to be sky-high. Along the same lines, Mitchell could be a sneaky MVP if this ends up as an even backfield split.
Moving on, Garoppolo is a lukewarm option in the multiplier slot, falling below 20 FanDuel points in all of his 2022 starts. San Francisco ranks 24th in pass rate over expectation, limiting the quarterback's volume in most weeks. He's probably better suited for a flex spot, but it might surprise you that he ranks third in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this season behind just Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes, so the efficiency is there if Garoppolo ends up passing more than usual.
The McCaffrey trade and return of Mitchell figure to limit Samuel's usage as a runner, and he's hit 20 FanDuel points once all season as is. He still leads the team with a 24.1% target share, though, and his unique role presents multiple avenues towards a ceiling game despite the box score results to this point.
On the other side, DeAndre Hopkins ($15,000) and James Conner ($11,000) have the highest projections for Arizona. In Week 10, Colt McCoy targeted Hopkins 14 times for a 40.0% target share and 41.0% air yards share, so the elite wideout remains a no-brainer MVP option regardless of who's under center.
Conner logged a 95.4% snap rate and 27 adjusted opportunities last week, so he also has a massive role. The volume keeps him in the multiplier conversation, but it's worth noting that San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs.
Finally, McCoy can be considered a fringe MVP solely because he's unlikely to garner much attention for a quarterback. He did crack 20 FanDuel points in a start against Seattle last year, so you never know.
The 49ers' defense would be in play against Kyler Murray, so they make even more sense against his backup. This defense ranks 4th in sacks this year and ranks 11th in total adjusted defense, per numberFire's metrics. They've scored 15 or more FanDuel points three times.
Kittle's role in the passing game can fluctuate wildly from week to week, but he's still managed an 18.2% target share, and he's played 100% of the snaps in the last two games. He also leads the team with a promising 45.5% end zone target share despite scoring just two touchdowns in seven games. Arizona has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Aiyuk is second behind Samuel in target share (22.5%), but he notably leads the team in air yards share (29.3%), averaging a team-high 2.9 downfield targets (10-plus air yards) per game. He's tallied over 80 receiving yards in four straight games, so the potential is there if he cashes in with a touchdown.
Of the remaining 49ers, kicker Robbie Gould ($9,000) and wideout Jauan Jennings ($8,000) are potential value plays. Gould has scored double-digit FanDuel points in two of the last three games, and he could get his share of work on the heavily favored side. Jennings has only seen an 11.2% target share and 40.2% snap rate this season, making him a dart throw at best.
Moore was right behind Hopkins with 13 targets last week, leading to a significant 37.1% target share and 47.1% air yards share. McBride only saw one target as the replacement for Zach Ertz, but his 90.8% snap rate and 74.4% route rate puts him on the map as an intriguing value.
A.J. Green ($7,500) and Robbie Anderson ($6,000) are tough to get excited about but deserve a mention. Green played under 50% of the snaps with McCoy under center, though he did catch his first touchdown of the season. Anderson didn't see a single target last week on limited snaps.