NFL

Sunday Night Football Betting: Will the Chiefs Cover as Road Favorites Against the Chargers?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Nov 20th, 2022
The algorithm at numberFire likes the Chiefs to get the win. Does that mean they'll cover, too? And which player props stand out for Sunday Night Football?

To conclude Sunday in Week 11, the Los Angeles Chargers host the Kansas City Chiefs as 5.5-point home underdogs, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The total is a hefty 52.5 points, so we should see some scoring. And while the Chiefs are favored, it's expected to be a touchdown game, which means it can go either way.

How does numberFire's algorithm see it playing out?

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 - 2 Stars out of 5
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-240) - 2 Stars out of 5

Before we dig in too deep, there are some key injury notes here.

The Chiefs are without receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, and fellow wideout Mecole Hardman is on injured reserve.

For the Chargers, they're getting healthier with receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back. Williams should be a full go, and Allen is expected to be on a snap count.

The algorithm here at numberFire likes the Chiefs to handle business tonight despite this news.

They're 75.8% likely to win, a pretty substantial number -- especially as a road team against a divisional opponent. That puts the expected moneyline at -313.

The expected score (30.4 to 22.2) is an 8.2-point gap, and the Chiefs are rating out as 58.8% likely to cover the spread.

Player Props to Target

Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions (-128) - Ekeler is projected for 6.0 catches, and while the Chargers are getting receivers back, tight end Gerald Everett is questionable, and Keenan Allen won't play a full role. Ekeler has had 10, 12, 7, and 7 catches over the past four games.

Justin Herbert Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - The models project Herbert for 16.2 rushing yards. He has had totals of 13, 9, 22, 3, and 22 in his past five, which would have put him over in four of those games. He had just a single rushing yard against the Chiefs in Week 2, but the Chiefs are just average in rushing yards over expectation allowed to quarterbacks.

Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Total Kicking Points (-114) - numberFire's model is projecting Butker for 4.0 extra points and 1.8 field goals for a total of 9.4 kicking points. Playing as a favorite should help him reach this over.