Week 11 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: New York Jets +3.5 (-115)
In games with Dak Prescott back in action, the underlying numbers show that the Cowboys are a top-five adjusted offense, and it looks like the Vikings will have high-impact left tackle Christian Darrisaw for this game. With weather and wind concerns all over the board, it's nice to have a controlled environment for this matchup, too. The offenses should win out.
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: New York Jets +3.5 (-115)
Thanks! I hate it! My numbers have this game as a toss-up, so getting a win on a three-point loss helps. Zach Wilson imploded when these two teams faced off a few weeks ago, but it's possible negative highlight bias is influencing this line too much. The other side features a top-five defense against a struggling quarterback, as well. In what could be a rock fight, I'm fine taking the points and praying Wilson doesn't short-circuit again.
Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Any Time Touchdown (+145)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Chicago Bears +3.0 (-115)
Our nERD-based ratings have the Bears being nearly two points better than the Atlanta Falcons, so even once you factor in Atlanta's home-field advantage, there's some wiggle room on the Bears' side of the spread. Justin Fields' red-hot run should continue versus an Atlanta defense that ranks second-worst by our numbers. We project the Bears to lose by score of 22.6-21.7, and it's nice knowing it'll be a push if Chicago falls by a field goal.
Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Detroit Lions +3.0 (-114)
This matchup rates as the second-worst in pace and the fourth-worst in pass rate, which should keep scoring down. But even if the Ravens put up points as double-digit favorites, it's fair to wonder whether Carolina will be able to do anything on the other side. Baker Mayfield is unlikely to be much of an upgrade at quarterback. Among signal-callers with at least 100 drop backs this year, Mayfield ranks as the fifth-worst in passing efficiency, per numberFire's metrics.
Player Prop: Chris Olave Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Philadelphia Eagles -7.0 (-106)
Player Prop: Daniel Jones Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The New York Football Giants come in with a 53.63% rushing play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league, and the third-lowest (46.37%) passing play percentage. Jones has posted under 220 passing yards in all nine of his game this season, and seven of the games have been under 200 passing yards. That rushing success should continue this week against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the seventh-most (1,020) rushing yards to running backs. This should put the Giants in a spot to move on the ball on the ground against a weak Lions' run defense, thus limiting Jones' need to pass the ball.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-112)
Player Prop: Brian Robinson Any Time Touchdown (+130)
In the past two weeks without J.D. McKissic, Robinson and Antonio Gibson have split the Washington Commanders' running back carries in the red zone evenly. However, last week showed that Robinson (26 carries) will get the bulk of the overall rushing work as Gibson (14 carries) mixes in on passing downs. The Houston Texans are handily numberFire's worst rushing defense, and they've given up 11 touchdowns in the past seven games to running backs who led their team in carries. Robinson shouldn't have just 43.5% implied odds to score in the league's easiest matchup.