Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 6-3 | 11.98 | 1 | 0 | 97.8% | 2.62 |
| Chiefs | 7-2 | 10.09 | 2 | 1 | 99.4% | 2.33 |
| Eagles | 8-1 | 8.29 | 3 | -1 | 99.8% | 2.51 |
| Bengals | 5-4 | 7.08 | 4 | 1 | 72.0% | 1.89 |
| Cowboys | 6-3 | 5.23 | 5 | -1 | 90.4% | 2.06 |
| Vikings | 8-1 | 4.49 | 6 | 2 | 99.9% | 1.75 |
| Ravens | 6-3 | 4.03 | 7 | -1 | 92.4% | 2.18 |
| Jets | 6-3 | 3.46 | 8 | -1 | 78.6% | 1.76 |
| Dolphins | 7-3 | 3.42 | 9 | 3 | 85.4% | 2.07 |
| Buccaneers | 5-5 | 2.33 | 10 | 1 | 87.2% | 1.85 |
| 49ers | 5-4 | 1.83 | 11 | -1 | 81.2% | 1.78 |
| Patriots | 5-4 | 0.76 | 12 | 2 | 20.7% | 0.98 |
| Giants | 7-2 | 0.74 | 13 | -4 | 73.0% | 1.69 |
| Packers | 4-6 | 0.19 | 14 | 8 | 24.9% | 1.36 |
| Titans | 6-3 | -0.27 | 15 | 3 | 85.4% | 0.94 |
| Jaguars | 3-7 | -0.50 | 16 | -3 | 6.8% | 1.50 |
| Broncos | 3-6 | -0.89 | 17 | 0 | 4.4% | 1.65 |
| Commanders | 5-5 | -1.10 | 18 | 6 | 29.8% | 1.90 |
| Cardinals | 4-6 | -1.59 | 19 | 2 | 13.0% | 1.48 |
| Seahawks | 6-4 | -1.72 | 20 | -4 | 72.0% | 1.90 |
| Steelers | 3-6 | -2.24 | 21 | 7 | 7.0% | 1.40 |
| Chargers | 5-4 | -2.93 | 22 | -2 | 29.7% | 1.11 |
| Browns | 3-6 | -3.50 | 23 | -4 | 2.0% | 1.18 |
| Rams | 3-6 | -3.58 | 24 | -1 | 6.9% | 1.05 |
| Saints | 3-7 | -3.73 | 25 | -10 | 5.8% | 1.08 |
| Bears | 3-7 | -4.22 | 26 | -1 | 0.0% | 1.13 |
| Colts | 4-5-1 | -5.98 | 27 | 3 | 18.0% | 0.62 |
| Falcons | 4-6 | -6.02 | 28 | -1 | 12.3% | 1.21 |
| Raiders | 2-7 | -6.19 | 29 | -3 | 0.4% | 1.04 |
| Lions | 3-6 | -6.45 | 30 | -1 | 1.4% | 0.68 |
| Panthers | 3-7 | -6.64 | 31 | 0 | 2.2% | 0.78 |
| Texans | 1-7-1 | -11.97 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.57 |
A third loss wasn't enough to bump the Buffalo Bills from the top spot, but the Philadelphia Eagles' first loss knocked them from second to third in the rankings. The surging Kansas City Chiefs overtook them. A Dallas Cowboys letdown in Week 10 helped the inactive Cincinnati Bengals jump them at number four.
Only two teams saw their playoff odds increase by more than 15.0 points. Both were on bye in Week 10. The Bengals (+22.0) and the New York Jets (+20.9) now have better-than-70% odds to make the playoffs despite getting some rest this week.
But a huge win came for the Minnesota Vikings over those Bills this week. It was quite the wild ride, and it now has them at 8-1, same as the Eagles (who beat Minnesota back in Week 2). The win jumped Minnesota's Super Bowl win odds 2.1 points to 8.0%. The three teams ahead of them -- Buffalo (24.4%), Kansas City (21.6%), and Philadelphia (19.0%) -- in Super Bowl odds are well ahead, yet it has to feel great to be a top-four team by Super Bowl probability after spending a lot of recent seasons underperforming their nERD data.
The largest change in nERD belongs to the Miami Dolphins, who are now 7-3. Their nERD increased by more than a field goal (3.01), thanks to a 22-point win over the Cleveland Browns. Miami faces the Houston Texans (32nd in nERD) after a bye. The schedule tightens up from there, but they're legitimate contenders. Our model has their Super Bowl win odds at 2.2%, which might sound low but is tied partially to an unlikely route to winning the division (17.6%) and getting the best possible draw in the playoffs.
The Green Bay Packers' win over the Cowboys led to a reversal in their nERD data. Dallas ranked fourth entering the week, and a three-point overtime win for the Packers bumped them up from 22nd to 14th in our rankings. Their playoff odds are still low (24.9%). They have an up-and-down schedule with three games remaining against teams 26th or worse in nERD and three games with teams in the top-10. The outlier there is this week's matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who are 15th.
The biggest loss of the week came for the Los Angeles Chargers, whose playoff odds fell by 34.3 points to 29.7%. The next biggest playoff odds decrease belonged to the Atlanta Falcons, and that was only 12.5 points.
