3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 10
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
DeVonta Smith Any Time Touchdown (+200)
DeVonta Smith Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The undefeated Eagles are 11.5-point home favorites, and the game total is set at 43.5 points. The Eagles boast one of the league's best offenses, and we want to hone in on some player props that have value tonight.
There are plenty of viable offensive options for the Eagles, and I'm turning to DeVonta Smith for a touchdown (+200) and over 52.5 receiving yards (-113). The Eagles are rocking a 27.0-point implied total, an indication their offense should be putting up points -- as usual.
Smith comes in with a strong 23.3% target share and 27.6% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest on the team behind A.J. Brown. Smith is also playing on 90.4% of the snaps and running a route on 95.8% of dropbacks, both of which are the highest on the Eagles. He also owns a 21.0% red zone target share, the third-highest on the team.
Despite seeing elite offensive usage, Smith has been over this 52.5-yard mark only once in the last four games and has just one touchdown in that span. While the production is lacking, he still maintains a large role in Philly's passing offense and has a favorable matchup tonight to capitalize on it.
The Commanders have allowed the ninth-most (1,564) receiving yards and the fifth-most (9) touchdowns to wide receivers this season, something Smith knows plenty about. In Week 3, Smith torched the Commanders' secondary for 8 receptions, 169 yards, and a score.
We have Smith projected for 59.75 receiving yards, putting him over his yardage prop, and in a game where the Eagles should score plenty, Smith's strong offensive role should put him in a spot to find the end zone after failing to reach it in three of the last four games.
Miles Sanders Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-122)
Next up, Miles Sanders going under 15.5 rushing attempts tonight.
The Eagles are large 11.5-point favorites, which should put them in a position to run the ball and control the clock. But that doesn't necessarily mean Sanders is in an amazing matchup.
First off, this might not be a bloodbath. The Eagles are taking only 57% of the bets on the spread, a rather interestingly low number for the NFL's lone undefeated team. The Commanders have covered the spread in three of their last four games, with a push last week. They have been keeping games close all while their defense has allowed the 10th-fewest (766) rushing yards to running backs this season.
If the Commanders keep the game close, this should limit the number of rushing attempts Sanders will see. Plus, Sanders' rushing share is only at 42.4% for the Eagles, which is tied with Jalen Hurts' rushing share. We also see Kenneth Gainwell in the mix with a 10.2% rushing share, taking away a few carries here and there.
Sanders has been good this season, but this isn't the best matchup for him to pound the rock time after time. He's projected for 14.28 rushing attempts, so our model has him hitting the under on this prop tonight.