3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+100)
This matchup features a modest 43.5-point over/under and we want to take a look at some player props, starting off with Justin Jefferson scoring a touchdown at even money. This might come as a surprise, but Jefferson hasn't scored a receiving touchdown since Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers.
Jefferson did find his way into the endzone in Week 4 versus the New Orleans Saints via the rushing game, but according to Jefferson himself, "that doesn't count, that doesn't count in my eyes." While I add this with a bit of jest, his lack of touchdowns is very apparent considering the strong offensive role he has within the Vikings' passing game.
To this point in the season, Jefferson is playing on 97.1% of the snaps and running a route on 97.8% of drop backs. He holds a 29.0% target share, 39.3% air yards share, and 28.3% red zone target share. All of those are the highest on the team, and still, there's not been a single receiving touchdown since Week 1.
The matchup against the Commanders is a solid one since they have allowed the fifth-most (1,382) receiving yards and tied for the fifth-most (8) touchdowns allowed. With the massive usage he has in the Vikings' offense, he's simply due for a receiving touchdown and should be able to find that versus a weak pass defense.
Justin Herbert Under 289.5 Passing Yards (-114)
A couple of things are true for the Chargers this week, they have a great matchup against a very weak Atlanta Falcons' defense, and the Chargers offense is decimated by injuries. Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is still dealing with a hamstring injury from Week 1, Austin Ekeler was limited in practice on Thursday, and Donald Parham Jr. didn't practice on Thursday.
While Ekeler has a chance to play, the Chargers could be significantly shorthanded this week. Missing key offensive pieces can be a big blow to an offense and its overall production -- just as we saw with the Cincinnati Bengals missing Ja'Marr Chase last week.
This should cool their offense overall, and despite a great matchup versus the league-worst pass defense, per our metrics, Herbert could have a tough time picking up yards due to the lack of talent around him.
All of this has Herbert projected for 276.11 passing yards, hitting the under on his prop Sunday.
Robert Tonyan Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Another team, another set of injuries to monitor.
The Packers have Allen Lazard listed as a game-time decision while Christian Watson was limited in practice on Thursday. This leaves their already lackluster wide receiver room potentially shorthanded in a great matchup against a bad Detroit Lions defense.
That has me turning to Robert Tonyan for over 30.5 receiving yards this week, which is a mark he has hit in three straight games. Tonyan is becoming one of the more consistent options in the Packers' passing game due to the injuries, consistency, or overall lack of trust from Aaron Rodgers.
This has led Tonyan to grab a 15.5% target share, 10.3% air yards share, and 14.7% red zone target share. If Aaron Rodgers trusts Tonyan in the red zone, it should be a good indication that he is going to be featured in the passing game overall.
That's especially true in this matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the 10th-most (413) receiving yards to tight ends this season. All of this gives Tonyan a great chance to hit the over on a modest 30.5-yard receiving total this week.