With the Minnesota Vikings’ trade of standard NFL value chart), I was able to come up with a sort of cost-benefit ratio. Essentially, the cheaper the pick you spend and the more production you get from it, the better off you are. If I can get Tom Brady (1,534.31 career Total NEP) at 199th overall for draft value cost of 11.8, I’d much more prefer that to spending the third overall pick with a draft value cost of 2,200 on Joey Harrington (-274.63 career Total NEP).
The table below shows this average data in a per-round manner.
| Round | NEP/Value |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.073 |
| 2 | 0.159 |
| 3 | 0.041 |
| 4 | -0.062 |
| 5 | -0.835 |
| 6 | 1.988 |
| 7-UDFA | -1.956 |
Tom Brady ruins all my ratios. The sixth-round value anomaly is due to Brady’s tremendous career -- which has by far the best per-cost Total NEP of any quarterback (130.03) -- but without him, this round clocks in at a paltry -1.129 Total NEP per draft cost. It’s a little surprising that this data somewhat contradicts my expectations: I assumed that due to the immensely low cost of the later picks, there would be some measure of a flat tier lower in the per-cost value chart. Instead, there is a strong downward trend with each lower round, meaning that the first two rounds are truly the best places to get the bang for your buck in a signal-caller.
To triangulate a best possible point for teams to select their franchise passer, factoring in reliability (Non-Factor% and R-Level%), potential (E-Level%), and per-cost production (NEP/Value), based on this data, I would suggest first- or second-round picks only be spent on quarterbacks in the NFL draft. The natural talent based on the reliability percentages sustains somewhat through the fourth round, so if looking for a solid backup only, I could see spending a third- or fourth-round pick on a benchwarmer. For a true franchise player, though, the elite upside doesn’t tend to make it out of the first and second rounds, and the production-per-cost is actually at its peak early on.
So beg your favorite team’s general manager not to be stingy: the quarterback position is, in fact, one to pay highly for on draft day. Strong investment there could change team’s futures for a long time.