Week 8 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Atlanta Falcons -4.0 (-110)
Both of these teams are bottom-12 in adjusted expected points per play offensively in my model while also sitting top-10 in that stat on the defensive side of things. While not many running backs are game-changers, Breece Hall was qualifying as such by churning out 1.41 yards per carry over expectation. Since getting Zach Wilson under center, the Jets rank 25th in pass rate and have a pass rate over expectation of -6.0%. The clock should be running often in this matchup, and we probably won't see many points as a result.
Player Prop: Dalvin Cook Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Green Bay Packers +10.5 (-105)
The Buffalo Bills are easily the top team in my 2022-only model (which ignores priors). I'm leaning on that one here to make sure I'm not under-accounting for how poorly the Packers have played. Even with that, my model has the Bills favored by 7.21. Green Bay's early-down efficiency has still been good as they rank fourth there offensively after adjusting for opponent. They've just been awful on late downs and have been too conservative late in games. They can't afford to be conservative in this one, so I'll take the points and get across several key numbers.
Player Prop: Travis Etienne Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: New England Patriots -2.5 (-114)
Early in the year, both of these offenses looked explosive. They've since slowed, partially due to injuries. While both attacks are mostly healthy for this week, I'm not sure either offense is actually all that great. Detroit hasn't scored a touchdown in two straight games while Miami's offense was pretty blah in Tua Tagovailoa's first game back, totaling 16 points last week. Our model projects 43.9 points to be scored in this one and has the under winning out 72.3% of the time.
Player Prop: Kyler Murray Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Atlanta Falcons -4.0 (-110)
According to numberFire's metrics, the 49ers rank 21st in schedule-adjusted offense while the Rams are even worse at 27th. Meanwhile, both teams are top 10 in adjusted defense. When these two teams met in Week 4, they combined for 33 points. The addition of Christian McCaffrey will give San Francisco a boost, but this should still be a fairly low-scoring affair overall.
Player Prop: Greg Dulcich Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-110)
Player Prop: A.J. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Brown has been elite this season and comes in with 45.78 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the eighth-best in the league among wide receivers. On top of that, he has 0.86 Reception NEP per target, the ninth-best clip among wide receivers with at least 30 targets. To this point in the year, the Pittsburgh Steelers' secondary has allowed the second-most (1,467) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Detroit Lions +3.5 (-106)
Player Prop: Najee Harris Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Philadelphia Eagles' sneaky weakness is their rushing defense. They're actually the sixth-worst rush defense, per our metrics. Even in a negative script last week, Harris got 17 carries and played 76.8% of the snaps. He's hit this line in every game where he's gotten at least 15 carries, so if they stay committed to him again versus a worse-than-perception run defense, this bet should be in pretty good shape.