NFL
Why Teams Should Be Cautious About Julius Thomas in Free Agency
Julius Thomas has scored a lot of touchdowns in a Broncos uniform, but his free agency prospects are not without concerns.

Relatively speaking, tight ends who score a total of 24 touchdowns in two seasons rarely hit the open market.

That’s what makes Denver Post, Julius Thomas’ financial asking price is a deal near $8 million per year. That type of money would place him as the third highest paid tight end in the NFL behind Rob Gronkowski ($9 million per year) and Jimmy Graham ($10 million per year). I’m not quite sure Thomas is worth that type of money.

It’s worth bringing up that there is a fairly big difference in what Gronkowski and Graham are asked to do in their offenses. To create mismatches against out-matched defensive backs, the Patriots and Saints essentially ask their stud tight ends to convert to wide receivers and run a fairly high percentage of their routes out of the slot.

Over the past two seasons, Rob Gronkowski has run 48.9% of his routes from the slot while Jimmy Graham has done so 47.5% of the time. On the other end of the scale, Julius Thomas has moved to the slot just 24.1% of the time. That’s not to say Thomas couldn’t run more slot routes in a new scheme, but it does question his versatility.

If he wants to be paid like a top-three tight end, shouldn’t he be able to move around the field like one? His red zone dominance is surely an asset, but he's not a vertical, field-stretching threat like the highest paid at the tight end position are.

Sure, statistically speaking, Julius Thomas’ production has been great. And there is no denying that he’s been one of the best tight ends in the red zone over the past two years. The problem is that, wherever Thomas lands, he can’t bring Peyton Manning with him. That’s not to say a team wouldn’t pay up for Thomas, and he could very well wind up in a fairly advantageous spot on a team that utilizes his touchdown-making ability.

But Thomas could also get paid his asking price by a team with a lot of cap space such as Jacksonville or Oakland and be in an inefficient offense with young, unstable quarterbacks.

Given his injury concerns, his fairly one-dimensional play so far in his career, and his hefty asking price, smart NFL organizations might stay away from giving Julius Thomas $8 million a year despite his red zone potential.

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