3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 7
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Another primetime game and another modest over/under of 40.5 points may not be eye-catching, but we want to turn our attention to the prop market. Starting off, Rhamondre Stevenson over 61.5 rushing yards is the first spot I'm looking at. The Patriots are expected to get Damien Harris back from his hamstring injury, but that shouldn't stop Stevenson.
During the first four games of the season when both Stevenson and Harris were healthy, Stevenson was able to post over 66 rushing yards twice while splitting the carries with Harris. Stevenson has been crushing for the Patriots this season and comes in as the seventh-highest-graded tailback according to PFF.
On top of that, Stevenson has a 14.86 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the fifth-best in the league. Stevenson is good -- full stop.
When it comes to Chicago's defense, they haven't been great this season. The Bears have allowed 737 rushing yards to running backs this season, which is the seventh-most in the league.
The return of Harris shouldn't impact Stevenson, who has factually been the better running back this season. Hit the over for Stevenson tonight.
Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (-113)
When it comes to the passing game, Jakobi Meyers has a prop worth considering.
The news for the Patriots' passing game is that quarterback Mac Jones is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing the last three games. While I don't expect a ton of points in this game or a ton of production from Jones overall, I like Meyers over 4.5 receptions tonight.
First off, Meyers is the top target for the Patriots with a 27.0% target share, running a route on 90.3% of dropbacks, a 37.5% air yards share, and an 11.1 average depth of target (aDOT). In the three games Jones started this season, he had a 9.9 aDOT.
What does this all mean, and what's a realistic outcome for this game? With Jones returning from an injury, are the Patriots going to put him in a spot where he needs to throw the ball 40 times a game, or will they ease him back into the offense?
I'm going with the latter and that shouldn't be a surprise. The Patriots have a 50.83% pass-play percentage, which is 27th in the league. They are a run-heavy offense and have been for a few seasons but, when they do pass the ball, Meyers is the primary option for them.
So, with Jones returning, it's reasonable to see that they will ease him into the passing game by making simple short throws to their top receiver, Meyers. This should put him in a spot to hit over 4.5 receptions tonight -- even if we see a lower-scoring game.
Darnell Mooney Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Finally, let's look at under 45.5 receiving yards for Darnell Mooney.
The Bears don't generate a ton of offense through the air, and a tough matchup should lead to under for their receivers. The Bears come in with a 41.19% pass-play percentage, which is dead last in the league. Conversely, that means they have the league's highest (58.81%) rushing play percentage.
A low volume of passing attempts per game makes it tough for their receivers to pile up yards, and the Bears aren't having Justin Fields throw the ball deep at a high rate. This has led to Mooney hitting the under on this total in three of the six games this season.
The Patriots' defense has been solid to start the season, allowing the seventh-fewest (895) receiving yards and the fourth-fewest (70) receptions to wide receivers.
This is a tough matchup for a non-pass-heavy offense that should lead to the under for Mooney tonight.