NFL

Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC

Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.

But numberFire's power rankings do just that.

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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.

numberFire's NFL Power Rankings

Team Record nERD nERD
Rank
Rank
Change
Playoff
Odds
xWins
Next 3
Bills5-114.311099.7%2.70
Chiefs5-29.612198.3%2.55
Eagles6-07.563-199.6%2.70
Bengals4-36.434360.0%2.46
Cowboys5-25.095089.3%1.99
Ravens4-32.936080.3%1.88
Buccaneers3-42.427-371.5%1.89
Giants6-11.6581279.4%2.42
Vikings5-11.569290.9%1.29
Dolphins4-31.3010-161.2%2.06
Cardinals3-41.0611823.2%1.64
Raiders2-41.0312430.8%1.81
Rams3-30.6413145.1%1.47
49ers3-40.5614-669.7%1.47
Packers3-4-0.1815-234.8%1.20
Chargers4-3-0.2916-659.8%1.26
Broncos2-5-1.0317-26.7%1.41
Jets5-2-1.0418558.4%1.11
Jaguars2-5-1.2219-118.8%1.12
Patriots3-4-1.2720-815.4%1.66
Titans4-2-1.2921069.4%1.36
Saints2-5-1.4222-515.4%1.39
Bears3-4-2.7223513.6%1.35
Steelers2-5-3.572405.2%0.80
Browns2-5-3.812507.3%0.61
Commanders3-4-3.9126112.1%0.97
Seahawks4-3-4.6127221.7%0.86
Falcons3-4-4.8028-622.9%1.44
Colts3-3-1-5.3929-326.9%1.08
Panthers2-5-5.543018.5%1.05
Lions1-5-8.6131-12.1%0.77
Texans1-4-1-9.473201.8%0.49


The Cincinnati Bengals are clawing their way back in the standings, but numberFire's algorithm always believed in them. Cincinnati never dropped lower than 13th in our standings despite an 0-2 start (both of those losses by just a field goal). Now, they're up to fourth with their 4-3 record. Their playoff odds are now a firm 60.0%, roughly doubled from a 30.6% rate after Week 3. None of their next four opponents -- the Cleveland Browns (25th), Carolina Panthers (30th), Pittsburgh Steelers (24th), or Tennessee Titans (21st) -- are inside the top 20 in nERD.

There's trouble with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had ranked second in nERD through Week 5, they were fourth after Week 6, and now they're down to seventh. Though it feels like hope is lost, they have a 3-4 record. Even after a 19.1-point drop in playoff odds and a 16.9-point drop in division odds, they're more likely than not to make the playoffs (71.5%) and win the NFC South (66.7%). We could see more damning headlines over the next two games: they host the Baltimore Ravens (6th) and Los Angeles Rams (13th). After that, they have three straight games against teams 22nd or worse: Seattle Seahawks (27th), Cleveland Browns (25th), and New Orleans Saints (22nd).

The lone double-digit rank shift belongs to the New York Giants, who are now up to eighth in the power rankings. Unfortunately for the 6-1 Giants, their division win odds still rate out as just 5.7%, thanks in large part to the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles' 84.8% division odds rate. On the bright side: New York has a 79.4% playoff probability rate. That's up from a preseason rate of 27.4%, a 52.0-point change, the largest climb of any team. They have no double-digit wins, but it may not matter because their schedule is so easy the rest of the way outside of four games against top-10 teams.

We saw a course correction for the Arizona Cardinals, who jumped from 19th to 11th by increasing their nERD by 1.98 points. They're going to be a fascinating team to close the season because their schedule features a lot of coinflip games: six of their final 10 matchups are against teams that rank between 13th and 20th in nERD.