NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 7
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,800 | 22.9 | 2.56 | 16.4 | 28.0 | 37.9% | 1.13 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,100 | 21.0 | 2.64 | 16.1 | 26.4 | 31.9% | 1.38 |
| Joe Burrow | $8,300 | 20.7 | 2.51 | 14.9 | 25.8 | 29.4% | 0.92 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,500 | 20.6 | 2.43 | 15.3 | 25.7 | 28.5% | 0.82 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,500 | 19.1 | 2.55 | 13.7 | 24.1 | 20.7% | 1.09 |
| Geno Smith | $6,800 | 18.3 | 2.72 | 12.8 | 23.6 | 19.8% | 1.46 |
| Derek Carr | $7,600 | 18.2 | 2.38 | 13.2 | 23.2 | 18.1% | 0.75 |
| Tom Brady | $7,400 | 17.7 | 2.33 | 13.1 | 22.6 | 16.1% | 0.77 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,100 | 16.8 | 2.42 | 12.0 | 21.9 | 14.2% | 0.78 |
| Marcus Mariota | $7,100 | 16.1 | 2.24 | 10.3 | 21.0 | 12.0% | 0.55 |
| Daniel Jones | $6,900 | 15.9 | 2.31 | 10.9 | 21.1 | 11.9% | 0.68 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,200 | 15.7 | 2.19 | 10.8 | 20.3 | 7.7% | 0.45 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,200 | 15.4 | 2.17 | 11.1 | 20.5 | 10.4% | 0.50 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,500 | 14.8 | 2.22 | 9.1 | 19.4 | 8.2% | 0.58 |
| Jared Goff | $7,300 | 14.8 | 2.09 | 10.5 | 20.1 | 9.3% | 0.38 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,700 | 14.5 | 2.20 | 9.4 | 19.6 | 7.7% | 0.51 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,300 | 14.4 | 1.98 | 9.9 | 18.9 | 6.4% | 0.27 |
| Davis Mills | $6,300 | 14.3 | 2.22 | 9.3 | 18.7 | 5.7% | 0.58 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,600 | 13.3 | 2.03 | 8.5 | 18.3 | 5.8% | 0.37 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,600 | 13.2 | 2.03 | 8.4 | 18.5 | 5.7% | 0.40 |
| Brett Rypien | $6,100 | 12.3 | 2.03 | 7.6 | 17.2 | 3.6% | 0.42 |
| P.J. Walker | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.66 | 5.8 | 15.0 | 1.5% | 0.16 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $9,200 | 18.1 | 1.96 | 12.5 | 23.5 | 41.1% | 1.87 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,500 | 18.0 | 1.93 | 12.2 | 24.5 | 42.3% | 1.64 |
| Josh Jacobs | $8,600 | 17.8 | 2.12 | 12.4 | 23.7 | 42.3% | 2.40 |
| Leonard Fournette | $8,400 | 17.2 | 2.01 | 10.9 | 22.6 | 35.8% | 1.74 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,300 | 17.1 | 1.87 | 11.7 | 22.4 | 35.8% | 1.26 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,400 | 16.7 | 2.22 | 10.8 | 21.7 | 31.8% | 2.55 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $8,000 | 16.4 | 2.03 | 10.2 | 22.0 | 32.6% | 1.71 |
| Jamaal Williams | $7,800 | 14.5 | 1.81 | 9.0 | 19.6 | 22.8% | 1.22 |
| Dameon Pierce | $7,700 | 14.4 | 1.88 | 9.2 | 19.6 | 23.0% | 1.37 |
| Breece Hall | $7,600 | 14.3 | 1.84 | 8.7 | 19.1 | 21.7% | 1.25 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $7,300 | 14.0 | 2.04 | 9.9 | 19.8 | 24.2% | 1.83 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $6,900 | 13.5 | 2.00 | 8.7 | 18.3 | 18.0% | 1.56 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,900 | 13.3 | 1.46 | 8.0 | 17.9 | 17.6% | 0.41 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,800 | 12.7 | 1.87 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 17.8% | 1.37 |
| A.J. Dillon | $5,700 | 11.4 | 2.00 | 6.6 | 16.1 | 11.3% | 1.49 |
| Travis Etienne | $6,200 | 10.7 | 1.76 | 6.3 | 15.5 | 9.9% | 1.01 |
| Tony Pollard | $6,500 | 9.9 | 1.58 | 5.5 | 14.6 | 7.1% | 0.67 |
| James Robinson | $5,800 | 9.3 | 1.60 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 5.6% | 0.73 |
| Brian Robinson | $6,100 | 9.1 | 1.50 | 4.5 | 13.6 | 4.6% | 0.59 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,300 | 9.0 | 1.42 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 4.4% | 0.46 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,800 | 8.5 | 1.48 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 5.1% | 0.60 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $5,900 | 8.4 | 1.37 | 3.9 | 12.6 | 3.8% | 0.46 |
| Caleb Huntley | $5,900 | 8.3 | 1.38 | 4.0 | 12.4 | 3.0% | 0.45 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,000 | 7.5 | 1.50 | 3.4 | 11.8 | 1.8% | 0.65 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,300 | 7.5 | 1.13 | 2.8 | 11.3 | 1.9% | 0.24 |
| Latavius Murray | $6,000 | 7.4 | 1.26 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 2.5% | 0.36 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,600 | 7.1 | 1.04 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 1.5% | 0.14 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $4,900 | 7.1 | 1.46 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 1.7% | 0.64 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $6,700 | 6.9 | 1.08 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 1.4% | 0.14 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $5,200 | 6.6 | 1.20 | 2.3 | 10.6 | 1.0% | 0.39 |
| Antonio Gibson | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.24 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 1.8% | 0.39 |
| Michael Carter | $5,600 | 6.5 | 1.13 | 2.6 | 10.2 | 1.5% | 0.26 |
| Rachaad White | $5,000 | 6.1 | 1.18 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 1.2% | 0.37 |
| J.D. McKissic | $4,900 | 6.0 | 1.23 | 1.8 | 9.9 | 1.5% | 0.38 |
| Mike Boone | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.00 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 0.6% | 0.21 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $5,100 | 5.4 | 1.07 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 1.0% | 0.26 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $4,600 | 5.3 | 1.15 | 1.8 | 9.3 | 0.6% | 0.38 |
| Nyheim Hines | $6,000 | 5.2 | 0.92 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.15 |
| Sony Michel | $5,400 | 5.1 | 0.93 | 1.5 | 9.2 | 0.3% | 0.19 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,300 | 5.1 | 0.91 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 0.6% | 0.17 |
| Justice Hill | $5,100 | 4.7 | 0.89 | 1.1 | 8.1 | 0.3% | 0.15 |
| Brandon Bolden | $4,900 | 4.5 | 0.98 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 0.4% | 0.21 |
| Samaje Perine | $5,200 | 4.2 | 0.90 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 0.4% | 0.15 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,600 | 4.1 | 0.94 | 0.7 | 8.3 | 0.3% | 0.25 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | 17.0 | 2.02 | 12.5 | 22.2 | 49.4% | 2.13 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,500 | 15.6 | 1.89 | 10.8 | 20.5 | 40.7% | 1.28 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,700 | 15.4 | 1.99 | 11.4 | 19.2 | 35.8% | 2.44 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,700 | 14.9 | 1.95 | 10.7 | 19.8 | 36.9% | 1.86 |
| Mike Williams | $7,800 | 14.4 | 1.79 | 8.9 | 19.5 | 33.4% | 1.18 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,500 | 14.0 | 1.87 | 10.3 | 18.0 | 27.8% | 1.46 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $6,900 | 13.0 | 1.91 | 7.9 | 18.3 | 29.1% | 1.42 |
| Tee Higgins | $7,100 | 12.3 | 1.75 | 7.7 | 16.9 | 22.6% | 0.94 |
| Mike Evans | $7,600 | 12.2 | 1.61 | 7.8 | 16.5 | 20.7% | 0.65 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,300 | 11.8 | 1.86 | 7.2 | 16.2 | 20.1% | 1.26 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,000 | 11.7 | 1.71 | 8.4 | 15.7 | 15.3% | 0.88 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,500 | 11.7 | 1.58 | 7.6 | 15.7 | 16.1% | 0.53 |
| Christian Kirk | $7,200 | 11.2 | 1.55 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 17.4% | 0.61 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,200 | 11.2 | 1.57 | 6.5 | 15.8 | 18.6% | 0.64 |
| Courtland Sutton | $7,000 | 10.5 | 1.42 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 16.2% | 0.51 |
| Drake London | $6,000 | 10.4 | 1.72 | 6.7 | 14.5 | 14.7% | 1.05 |
| Allen Lazard | $6,600 | 10.1 | 1.55 | 5.7 | 14.3 | 13.0% | 0.59 |
| Robert Woods | $5,800 | 10.1 | 1.73 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 7.5% | 0.96 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,200 | 9.8 | 1.57 | 5.0 | 14.7 | 13.1% | 0.72 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,300 | 9.7 | 1.50 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 9.9% | 0.59 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,800 | 9.5 | 1.42 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 12.6% | 0.48 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,700 | 9.4 | 1.41 | 5.9 | 12.3 | 3.7% | 0.28 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,100 | 9.2 | 1.50 | 5.2 | 13.2 | 8.6% | 0.56 |
| D.J. Moore | $5,500 | 9.1 | 1.57 | 4.1 | 13.4 | 10.4% | 0.76 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,500 | 8.9 | 1.58 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 2.4% | 0.64 |
| Romeo Doubs | $5,800 | 8.8 | 1.54 | 4.7 | 12.8 | 5.3% | 0.61 |
| Garrett Wilson | $5,500 | 8.8 | 1.54 | 5.0 | 12.4 | 6.3% | 0.66 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,200 | 8.8 | 1.42 | 4.8 | 13.2 | 10.0% | 0.50 |
| Rashod Bateman | $6,500 | 8.7 | 1.33 | 4.8 | 12.4 | 5.7% | 0.29 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,600 | 8.5 | 1.49 | 4.0 | 12.9 | 8.6% | 0.64 |
| Zay Jones | $5,700 | 8.2 | 1.39 | 3.9 | 12.0 | 6.0% | 0.46 |
| Mack Hollins | $5,500 | 8.0 | 1.53 | 3.7 | 12.5 | 6.2% | 0.63 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,300 | 8.0 | 1.11 | 4.7 | 11.5 | 3.3% | 0.09 |
| Nico Collins | $5,600 | 7.9 | 1.39 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 5.1% | 0.48 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,000 | 7.8 | 1.32 | 4.7 | 11.6 | 2.8% | 0.29 |
| Alec Pierce | $6,100 | 7.7 | 1.24 | 3.6 | 11.6 | 4.8% | 0.26 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,600 | 7.4 | 1.31 | 2.8 | 11.9 | 6.5% | 0.44 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.36 | 3.5 | 11.5 | 4.5% | 0.44 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | $5,500 | 7.0 | 1.29 | 4.0 | 10.9 | 1.8% | 0.38 |
| Russell Gage | $5,400 | 7.0 | 1.32 | 3.6 | 10.3 | 1.8% | 0.33 |
| Corey Davis | $5,600 | 7.0 | 1.19 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 3.7% | 0.31 |
| DeAndre Carter | $5,200 | 6.8 | 1.26 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 1.7% | 0.35 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.19 | 3.8 | 9.8 | 0.3% | 0.15 |
| Noah Brown | $5,400 | 6.7 | 1.30 | 3.6 | 10.1 | 1.3% | 0.27 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,400 | 6.3 | 1.07 | 2.3 | 9.6 | 1.5% | 0.22 |
| Devin Duvernay | $5,900 | 5.9 | 0.99 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 0.2% | 0.06 |
| Josh Reynolds | $6,400 | 5.8 | 0.84 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 1.6% | 0.08 |
| Mecole Hardman | $5,700 | 5.5 | 1.02 | 3.1 | 8.7 | 0.2% | 0.07 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,100 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 2.1 | 8.0 | 0.4% | 0.13 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,500 | 5.0 | 0.90 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 0.3% | 0.08 |
| Richie James | $5,300 | 4.9 | 0.98 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 0.0% | 0.09 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,000 | 4.8 | 0.97 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 0.6% | 0.17 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,300 | 4.8 | 0.88 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 0.3% | 0.11 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,400 | 4.5 | 0.82 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
| Shi Smith | $5,400 | 4.4 | 0.82 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 0.3% | 0.08 |
| Kyle Philips | $5,100 | 4.3 | 0.89 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.06 |
| Braxton Berrios | $5,000 | 4.3 | 0.85 | 1.7 | 6.9 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,200 | 4.2 | 0.84 | 1.7 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.05 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $8,500 | 14.5 | 1.72 | 9.1 | 20.2 | 49.0% | 0.94 |
| Travis Kelce | $8,300 | 14.0 | 1.73 | 9.7 | 18.4 | 45.5% | 0.86 |
| George Kittle | $6,600 | 9.9 | 1.48 | 5.5 | 13.7 | 19.2% | 0.48 |
| Gerald Everett | $6,300 | 9.4 | 1.51 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 13.8% | 0.45 |
| Kyle Pitts | $5,900 | 8.8 | 1.48 | 4.0 | 13.2 | 16.5% | 0.59 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,200 | 8.5 | 1.36 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 12.9% | 0.37 |
| David Njoku | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.29 | 3.7 | 10.9 | 7.6% | 0.32 |
| Dalton Schultz | $4,800 | 7.3 | 1.50 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 7.7% | 0.56 |
| Robert Tonyan | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.29 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 6.5% | 0.32 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,900 | 6.9 | 1.41 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 4.6% | 0.50 |
| Noah Fant | $5,000 | 6.5 | 1.34 | 3.4 | 9.7 | 4.8% | 0.35 |
| Evan Engram | $5,200 | 6.3 | 1.23 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 3.7% | 0.29 |
| Cade Otton | $4,900 | 6.2 | 1.21 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 4.1% | 0.33 |
| Foster Moreau | $4,600 | 6.1 | 1.35 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 3.4% | 0.44 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $5,100 | 5.5 | 1.12 | 2.6 | 8.6 | 1.7% | 0.19 |
| Will Dissly | $4,800 | 4.7 | 0.95 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 0.6% | 0.12 |
| Cole Turner | $4,300 | 4.5 | 1.10 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 1.9% | 0.27 |
| Tyler Conklin | $4,800 | 4.5 | 0.95 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 0.9% | 0.13 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,300 | 4.2 | 1.01 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 0.9% | 0.18 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,500 | 3.7 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 1.0% | 0.17 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,500 | 3.6 | 0.77 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 0.6% | 0.10 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,500 | 3.5 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.7% | 0.10 |
