NFL

8 Fantasy Football Sleepers for Week 7

How is it Week 7? I don't get it either. It's time to put on a brave face and identify some fantasy football sleepers.

Sleeper is an ambiguous term. For the purpose of this article, we'll define anyone on fewer than half of Yahoo! rosters as a sleeper. Typically, I'll actually aim to feature players on fewer than 40 percent of rosters.

Don't worry, deep-league gamers, this article is intended to help folks in leagues of all shapes and sizes. With that in mind, I'm following my predecessor's lead, including honorable mentions. If the featured players are already rostered in your league, the honorable mentions should provide you with players to consider filling in for an injured starter or a player on a bye -- or for whatever other reason you're diving into the free-agent pool.

While this article is primarily written through a season-long lens, sleepers are certainly viable as daily fantasy punts in certain builds, too. Keep that in mind when you're looking for cash-game savings or trying to gain cheap leverage in tournaments. That's why you'll see every player's FanDuel salary listed next to their Yahoo! roster percentage this year.

With bye weeks in full swing, identifying sleepers is even more important for your season-long and DFS needs. This week, the Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams are all on bye.

Last week was another strong showing for this column. Geno Smith finally found his floor (QB19), while Jimmy Garoppolo (QB9) and Justin Fields (QB8) found their ceilings at the right time. Kenneth Walker III balled out and Eno Benjamin didn't despite great usage. Rondale Moore and Evan Engram gave you usable PPR floors, while Alec Pierce delivered 49 yards and a touchdown.

Let's aim for more strong results in Week 7.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota (23% | $7,100) - It's a tough week for quarterback streamers below the 50% threshold, but streaming is as important as ever with fantasy managers missing the services of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins this week.

Nothing stands out about Mariota's matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati's defense has been good this year (eighth-best per our schedule-adjusted metrics), but they rank a middling 16th against running games. We know by now that the Atlanta Falcons want to run the ball (second to last in Pass Rate Over Expectation), so this matchup plays more into the offense's strengths.

This is mostly me banging the drum that Mariota is rostered in too few leagues. Mariota is the QB15 by points per game, yet is available in 3/4 of Yahoo! leagues. He is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season in which he rushed six times for 50 yards and a touchdown despite facing an even tougher opponent in the San Francisco 49ers (albeit a banged-up version).

This game has a sneaky high total (47.5), and Atlanta enters as 6.0-point underdogs. If they're unable to control the game on the ground, it's likely because they've fallen behind -- in which case Mariota will have to sling it more frequently. He may find more success than meets the eye against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in blitz rate, pressure rate, hurry rate and sacks. Mariota is firmly on the streaming radar this week.

Kenny Pickett (13% | $6,800) - This one is a play for all you deep-league degenerates. Pickett is in the concussion protocol, but Mike Tomlin has said he will start if he's able to clear the protocol. If he does, he'll get a salivating matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

Miami's defense has been impenetrable on the ground this year, ranking fourth-best in run defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Ranking 22nd against the pass, however, makes them a classic pass-funnel that offenses want to attack through the air. With stud corner Byron Jones still on PUP and other key players on the defense also dealing with injuries, it makes sense this unit is burnable in the passing game.

Pickett has played decently through two starts despite having to face Buffalo and Tampa Bay, literally our two top-ranked defenses by our schedule-adjusted metrics. Not only does Miami present a significantly easier matchup, but they've allowed the most quarterback rushing yards on the season (plus two rushing touchdowns). On just 93 drop backs so far this season, Pickett has rushed 9 times for 41 yards and two touchdowns. Possibly playing in catch-up mode, Pickett has sneaky upside this weekend.

Honorable Mentions: Jimmy Garoppolo (44% | $7,200), Ryan Tannehill (18% | $6,700)

Running Backs

Sony Michel (4% | $5,400) - You want deep sleepers? We got deep sleepers. Rostered in fewer than 5% of leagues, Michel certainly qualifies.

Michel is coming off season highs in carries (8), rushing yards (28), receptions (3) and receiving yards (14). This is especially notable because fellow Los Angeles Chargers running back Joshua Kelley left the game last week with a knee injury, leading to Michel's expanded workload. Kelley is reportedly going to miss "weeks, not days," so it feels reasonable to count him out this weekend.

Considering Kelley had 12 touches in Week 5 and then Michel had 11 in Week 6, it's clear the backup running back role has some weekly value in this offense. There's of course the massive injury upside if Austin Ekeler were to go down with an injury (please no).

Considering the Chargers have the highest implied total of all teams this week (29.0) and are 6.5-point favorites, Michel may have some extra opportunities to find the end zone and/or salt the game away.

Tyler Allgeier (43% | $5,900) - Per Dwain McFarland's Utilization Report, Allgeier just set season highs in snaps (59%), rush share (45%), and routes (54%). He also maintained the lion's share of the short-yardage work and pass-game work, essentially the two most high-value aspects of a running back role.

In short, Allgeier's role is good until Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams return from IR, neither of which is happening this week. As mentioned above in the Mariota section, Atlanta's matchup is better on the ground than through the air, which perfectly suits their rush-first offense. Allgeier's pass-game role ensures he should stay on the field if Atlanta falls behind, too. Allgeier has legitimate desperation flex appeal this week in all formats.

Honorable Mention: Rachaad White (31% | $5,000)

Wide Receivers

Josh Reynolds (37% | $6,400) - It's concerning that despite coming out of the bye, D.J. Chark is still not practicing (ankle). And while Josh Reynolds also didn't practice Wednesday (knee), we don't have a multi-week injury on his current resume, so there's less concern.

With one or both of Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark out the previous three weeks, Reynolds has quietly earned 28 targets over that span. That strong target volume made him the WR11 over that same span. While the matchup against the Dallas Cowboys doesn't stand out on paper, it's clear that the Lions' swiss cheese defense will continue to force this team into comeback mode. If Chark is again out, Reynolds is a confident WR3 with upside for more.

Wan'Dale Robinson (26% | $5,500) - It's finally happening! After leaving Week 1 almost immediately with a knee injury, Robinson made his long-awaited return in Week 6. Despite the team easing him into the offense with a 35% route rate, he was targeted on an impressive 36% of his routes. For reference, Stefon Diggs has been targeted on 27% of his routes this season.

Robinson parlayed that high target rate into three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown -- an impressive pseudo debut. With the New York Giants bereft of receiving options, it's reasonable to project Robinson's role to grow as we move forward. While nothing stands out about Robinson's matchup this week, at worst he's a must-stash who could dominate targets in an offense begging for playmakers.

Honorable Mentions: Donovan Peoples-Jones (19% | $5,600), Zay Jones (18% | $5,700), Tyquan Thornton (10% | $5,500), Josh Palmer if Keenan Allen remains out (25% | $5,700)

Tight Ends

Cade Otton (5% | $4,900) - Unfortunately Cameron Brate suffered a serious neck injury in Week 6 and then did not practice Wednesday. He's very unlikely to play this week. In steps Otton, who ran a route on 91% of Tom Brady's drop backs when Brate missed Week 5.

There's not much else to write. If Brate is out, Otton has a fantastic role on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is a 10.5-point favorite this week. He'll be a confident streamer and DFS punt if that's the case.

Juwan Johnson (2% | $4,700) - We've been down this road before with Johnson to mixed results, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this week is different. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Adam Trautman have already been ruled out on this short week. Thomas and Landry matter for target competition, while Trautman's absence helps for Johnson's snap and route rates.

Last week with Trautman suffering an in-game injury, Johnson ran a route on a season-high 82% of the team's drop backs, leading to six catches, four targets and 41 yards. That's legitimate PPR streaming value from the jump, while the matchup leaves room for more. Per Pro Football Reference, only two teams are allowing more fantasy points to tight ends.

Johnson has a good role, limited target competition and a tasty matchup, putting him on the TE1 borderline this week.

Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry (44% | $5,100), Evan Engram (38% | $5,200)



Eli Weiner is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Eli Weiner also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Eweiner2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.